There weren’t many wild moments in the first and second rounds of the men’s NCAA Tournament, but there were some surprises. So what should we expect for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight?
The jury is still out on some of the bold predictions prior to the tournament, but some have come true − like Kansas out in the first round and Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 streak snapped. Now with another weekend of games on deck, it’s time for more bold predictions for the race to the Final Four.
BYU and Alabama each score 100 points
A fun, intense college version of the NBA All-Star Game is in store in Newark with Brigham Young and Alabama ready to break the scoreboard. Alabama has been a scoring machine under Nate Oats and leads the country with 90.8 points per game. BYU averages 81.2 points a game, but the Cougars have turned it up recently with at least 90 points in five of their last nine wins, including 91 points against an offensively strong Wisconsin team.
Alabama has the fastest tempo in the country according to KenPom, and the Cougars can certainly keep up. Consider that Alabama has the ninth-worst scoring defense (81) in the country and BYU ranks 156th (71.4), this is likely to be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Whatever the line, the over is a safe bet.
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Tennessee finally gets past Kentucky
In the SEC, it felt like everyone beat up on each other, except when it came to Tennessee vs. Kentucky; the Wildcats had Tennessee’s number with two victories over the Volunteers. Tennessee has one of the best defenses in the country, but it struggled to contain the Wildcats’ offense − particularly in the second half − of both games.
Both teams have looked great so far in the tournament, but Tennessee’s defense appears to have reached another gear in hopes of clinching its first Final Four spot. As for Kentucky, it’s hard to beat a team twice, but it’s a greater challenge to do it three times in one season. The Volunteers’ defense tightens up and finally gets the best of Kentucky to advance to the Elite Eight.
Arkansas advances to Elite Eight
Don’t let the No. 10 seed fool you. Arkansas is playing great basketball at the right time with convincing wins against Kansas and No. 2 St. John’s. Next is Texas Tech, and the Razorbacks have the potential to stop Red Raiders star JT Toppin. Arkansas is one of the best shot-blocking teams in the country − fourth in Division I at 5.7 per game − and that will play a critical role in the paint.
Let’s also not forget John Calipari’s success in the Sweet 16. This will be the 15th time he will be coaching in the regional semifinal, where he’s gone 11-3. Simply put: Calipari knows how to prepare his team to play for a Final Four spot. The Hogs continue their impressive run and play for a regional final on Saturday.
Duke cruises toward Final Four
It’s fair to say Duke has looked like the best team so far in the tournament. Cooper Flagg has played like his superstar self since returning from an ankle injury, and the Blue Devils haven’t had much trouble against Mount Saint Mary’s and Baylor − they won the first two games by 44 and 23 points.
Even with the competition getting tougher with Arizona on Thursday and either Alabama or BYU on Saturday, the Blue Devils look like a machine that can’t be stopped. Everyone surrounding Flagg has also played well, and it’s tough to stop five different players when they’re all on fire. Duke wins its next two games comfortably by double-digits and gets to its first Final Four under Jon Scheyer.
Three No. 1 seeds make Final Four
This feels like the best chance to see the first all-No. 1 seed Final Four since 2008. However, while Duke rolled in its first two games, Auburn was tested by Creighton, Houston fought off a furious comeback by Gonzaga and Florida got all it could handle from Connecticut.
Three of the No. 1 seeds have shown cracks, and one of them ends up missing out in San Antonio: the top overall seed, Auburn.
