Who’s going to win the NCAA Tournament? What upsets are popular picks? What do our experts’ Final Fours look like?
We surveyed 24 writers and editors at The Athletic to get their men’s NCAA Tournament bracket picks. Not surprisingly, the consensus leans toward the favorites, but that doesn’t mean the staff bracket is all chalk.
Here are which teams received the most votes to advance in bracket form, followed by a deeper look at the vote counts and all 24 staffers’ Final Four picks.
Let’s go round by round to examine the most notable results and takes:
• Nobody could be convinced to go out on a limb enough to pick a No. 15 seed over a No. 2 or a No. 16 seed over a No. 1. Only one No. 3 seed, however, received all 24 votes: Texas Tech against UNC Wilmington. One voter took Lipscomb over Iowa State, two took Troy over Kentucky, and three took Montana over Wisconsin.
Eric Single on Montana over Wisconsin: “Look elsewhere for analytics-based upset picks; I’m here to provide common sense. Wisconsin just played four games in four days at the Big Ten tournament, including the title game late on Sunday afternoon, and now will head to Denver for an 11:30 a.m. local time tip-off on Thursday at elevation against a team that won’t have to switch time zones. Nervous yet? The Big Sky’s last tournament victory came in 2006, but the stars may be aligning for the Grizzlies.”
• Two upset picks are quite popular, including one that’s not even an upset, according to oddsmakers. Sixteen voters picked No. 11 seed Drake to knock out No. 6 seed Missouri as a 6.5-point underdog. No. 12 seed Colorado State is favored by 1.5 over No. 5 seed Memphis, according to BetMGM. Our staff agrees, with 17 of 24 calling for a Colorado State win.
Justin Williams on Colorado State over Memphis: “The team is hot entering the tournament — 10 straight wins — is solid on both ends of the floor, shoots it well from 3-point range and the free-throw line and cleans up on the glass. Plus I think Memphis plays down to its opponent.”
• Colorado State and Drake are the only two double-digit seeds that received a majority of votes, but a few others have noteworthy tallies. Ten voters picked No. 6 seed Ole Miss to lose, though they were split between San Diego State and North Carolina, with votes cast before Tuesday night’s First Four games. Ten voters also picked No. 12 seed UC San Diego to upset No. 5 seed Michigan and No. 13 seed High Point to take down No. 4 Purdue, last year’s national runner-up.
Joe Rexrode on High Point over Purdue: “This is a trendy one, and those are often worth avoiding, but it’s impossible to ignore Purdue’s defensive nosedive in the latter stages of the season. The Panthers are loaded offensively and have a 7-footer in Juslin Bodo Bodo, who can take advantage of the Boilers’ lack of interior resistance.”
Grace Raynor on UC San Diego over Michigan: “Who you are comes out in March, and the Tritons play some of the cleanest basketball in the country. UC San Diego ranks first nationally in turnover margin and second nationally in fewest turnovers per game. Throw in the fact star forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is averaging 19.5 points per game and UC San Diego should be a popular pick to bust some brackets.”
• Though 8/9 games are often viewed as toss-ups, not so here: 21 voters picked UConn to beat Oklahoma, 20 voters like Gonzaga to beat Georgia, and 16 picked Louisville over Creighton. All are No. 8 seeds. The closest call is 14 votes for No. 9 seed Baylor to beat Mississippi State.
• The only team that unanimously advanced to the Sweet 16 in our consensus bracket is Duke. Among the other No. 1 seeds, two voters picked Auburn to lose to Louisville in the second round, three voters picked Florida to lose to UConn, and three voters picked Houston to lose to Gonzaga.
• Three of our consensus Sweet 16 teams didn’t receive more than 50 percent of the votes to get there. In the East, No. 6 seed BYU got 12 of 24 votes to edge No. 3 Wisconsin (eight) and No. 11 VCU (four). In the Midwest, No. 3 Kentucky got 11 votes to top No. 6 Illinois (10), No. 11 Xavier (two) and No. 14 seed Troy (one). And in the South, No. 5 seed Texas A&M got 11 votes to top No. 5 Michigan (seven), No. 12 UC San Diego (four) and No. 13 Yale (two).
• Twenty-nine teams received at least one vote to win in the Sweet 16 to advance to the Elite 8, including four double-digit seeds: No. 10 seeds Arkansas and Vanderbilt, No. 11 seed VCU and No. 12 seed Colorado State.
• We have finally reached a couple of anti-Duke votes, as two people predict the Blue Devils to lose in the Sweet 16 to Arizona. The only No. 1 seed to receive fewer than 20 votes to get out of the Sweet 16 is Houston, which got 17. Instead of the Cougars in the top half of the Midwest, three voters opted for Clemson, three chose Gonzaga and one picked Purdue.
• Some of the most intriguing Elite 8 matchups: One voter likes another Michigan-Michigan State rivalry game in the South, two predict a Big East showdown between UConn and St. John’s in the West, and one likes an all-Big 12 East regional final between Arizona and BYU.
NameChampSouthWestEastMidwest
Duke
Florida
Houston
Auburn
Tennessee• Fifteen teams received at least one vote to make it to the Final Four, headlined by 21 for Duke, 16 for Florida, 14 for Michigan State and 13 for Houston. They form our consensus Final Four. No. 2 seed Michigan State got five more votes than No. 1 Auburn (nine) in the South.
• The only other teams to receive more than two Final Four votes: six each for St. John’s and Tennessee.
• The lowest seeds to receive a vote: one each for No. 5 seed Clemson, No. 7 seed UCLA and No. 8 seed Gonzaga. All are in the Midwest.
• Nine voters predict a Duke vs. Florida matchup for the national title, followed by four for Duke vs. Auburn. The only other pairings to receive multiple votes: two each for Houston vs. St. John’s, Duke vs. Michigan State and Houston vs. Michigan State.
• Duke received 11 of 24 national championship votes, easily ahead of six for Florida and five for Houston. Auburn and Tennessee received one each. The Big Ten hasn’t won a national title since Michigan State in 2000, and despite Michigan State’s being a popular Final Four pick by our staff, no one here thinks the conference will end its drought.
Why Florida? “Florida is the best team entering the tournament, with an offense good enough to win any style of game against any style of opponent, and a defense good enough to tide them over if the offense struggles.” — Justin Williams
Why Houston? “The Cougars are old, tough and seemingly healthy, as long as J’Wan Roberts remains on track to be back for Round 1 after an ankle injury in the Big 12 tournament. In a bracket littered with SEC teams, they also have gotten a pretty friendly assortment: For my money, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia and Texas are known quantities with sub-Final Four ceilings. Luck has to smile on Kelvin Sampson in late March eventually, right?” — Eric Single
Why Duke? “Every coach I’ve spoken to over the last 36 hours has said Duke. They’re considerably smarter than me about such things. So, Duke.” — Brendan Quinn
Own your bracket pool:
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Lance King, Alex Slitz, Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images)
