Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
We could be in for a chalky men’s NCAA Tournament. McNeese pulled off an upset of Clemson in the first round, and Colorado State beat Memphis in a rare matchup where the No. 12 seed was favored. However, no team seeded 13-16 won a game after the First Four for the first time since 2017.
That means your bracket might be in great shape! But remember, so is everyone else’s. It also emphasizes the importance of nailing that national champion prediction, as all of the key contenders remain in the field.
Houston and Duke looked the best in the round of 64, but Auburn, Florida and the other top squads all advanced past their mid-major foes. That means we had very little movement in our Stock Watch, but with the field narrowing, we could see many more surprises over the weekend.
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Unsurprisingly, Duke destroyed Mount St. Mary’s. The Blue Devils now face Baylor, which has a terrific group of guards but lacks size in the paint. More important than Friday’s result was the fact that Duke got Cooper Flagg back in the lineup. The likely top pick in the NBA Draft this June started and looked fully recovered from his ankle injury in 22 productive minutes.
The Gators handled Norfolk State on Friday evening, overwhelming their less athletic and less physical foe. The road gets much tougher, though, as the two-time reigning national champions loom in the second round. Even with their phenomenal depth and physicality, Florida faces a sizable test.
The Cougars suffocated SIUE on Thursday, holding the overmatched No. 16 seed to just 16 points after halftime. Most importantly, though, J’Wan Roberts started and looked healthy in 20 minutes, a massive development after an ankle injury suffered in the Big 12 tournament briefly put his status in doubt. The level of difficulty rises significantly now, with Gonzaga — a top-10 team in adjusted marginal efficiency, per KenPom — dead ahead.
The Tigers started extremely slowly, only leading Alabama State by one late in the first half, but a 9-0 run before the break helped propel the game into blowout range. Bruce Pearl’s team now faces Creighton, which could provide some matchup issues thanks to Ryan Kalkbrenner’s dominance in the paint. Auburn looks like the most vulnerable No. 1 seed.
The Johnnies completely overwhelmed Omaha with their massive athleticism edge. They remain one of the most physically imposing teams in the field, and Rick Pitino is masterful on the sideline. A matchup ripe with storylines awaits after Arkansas knocked off Kansas; Pitino and John Calipari have quite a history from their Louisville/Kentucky days.
Alabama outlasted a feisty effort from Robert Morris on Friday, and its terrific offense made the difference, led by 22 points from fifth-year senior Mark Sears. Importantly, the Crimson Tide also got seven minutes from Grant Nelson, back in action after a leg injury. Nate Oats smartly limited his minutes, but Nelson looks ready for a long run in March.
A deserved hat tip to UNC Wilmington, which stayed with Texas Tech for all 40 minutes on Thursday. Grant McCasland’s Red Raiders had injury concerns entering the tournament, and although Darrion Williams logged 30 minutes after sitting out Texas Tech’s Big 12 tournament loss, Chance McMillian was unable to suit up. His status could dictate this team’s upside.
Wofford was a challenging underdog, but Tennessee controlled the game for the entire 40 minutes and won comfortably. Chaz Lanier shined with 29 points, including six triples, while the Vols’ defense held Wofford to just 41 percent shooting inside the arc. Tennessee now has a bruising matchup with UCLA ahead on Saturday, which should be a war in the paint.
It wasn’t easy, but Michigan State took care of business against a competitive Bryant team on Friday night. Tom Izzo’s squad has drastically exceeded expectations all season, and the Spartans can continue that trend against New Mexico on Sunday. Their physicality will be tested against a frontcourt that features Nelly Junior Joseph, a giant in the paint who gave Marquette problems on Friday night (19 points, seven rebounds).
The Badgers took care of Montana despite having to play at altitude against a team comfortable with such conditions. The offense shined once again, and that prolific attack remains Wisconsin’s leading hope for a deep March run. However, another team comfortable at elevation, red-hot BYU, could be a significant challenge on Saturday.
No Keshon Gilbert, no problem. Iowa State rolled over Lipscomb in the opening round on Friday, using a 20-point performance from Milan Momcilovic to comfortably defeat the Bisons. TJ Otzelberger’s team now faces Ole Miss, which will test Cyclones’ backcourt with its strong group of guards.
The Wildcats’ defense has been their biggest question mark all season, but they shut down perimeter-starved Troy on Friday night. Most importantly, UK did not turn the ball over, and Lamont Butler’s presence at point guard (he played 25 minutes after missing the SEC tournament loss to Alabama) clearly stabilized the Cats.
Maryland dominated Grand Canyon on Friday, an impressive showing against a veteran-laden mid-major that won an NCAA Tournament game last season. The Terrapins got double-digit scoring performances from five different players, including DeShawn Harris-Smith — an important showing for a bench piece on a thin team.
The Wildcats exerted their dominance in the paint in Friday’s matchup with Akron. Arizona won the rebounding battle 53-22 in one of the most lopsided mismatches of the first round. Trey Townsend, who became a star last March with Oakland, helped lead the charge with four offensive rebounds, and Tobe Awaka racked up eight boards in just 17 minutes. The Wildcats’ physicality now awaits a stiffer test against Oregon on Sunday.
Illinois conquered First Four winner Xavier, knocking down 12 triples, led by big man Tomislav Ivisic’s 4-of-9 showing from deep. Brad Underwood’s team is ascending late in the season, having won five of its last six games, and it has a likely NBA Draft lottery pick in Lithuanian freshman Kasparas Jakucionis. Injuries and illness played roles in a streaky season, but with the entire roster now healthy, Illinois’ upside is huge.
The Boilermakers enter the rankings after a decisive win over High Point. The underdog Panthers were a media darling thanks to their explosive offense, but Purdue held them to just 63 points. Trey Kaufman-Renn tallied 21 points, and Big Ten player of the year Braden Smith racked up 20 points and six assists to lead the Boilermakers. Matt Painter’s team now faces McNeese, which upset Clemson on Thursday.
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(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: John E. Moore III, Dustin Satloff, Scott Winters / Getty Images)
