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Baseball is finally back and in full swing as each of the 30 MLB clubs has played at least one game. Saturday features a notable clash between two potential playoff teams as the Houston Astros host the New York Mets at 7:15 p.m. ET. Griffin Canning is projected to start for New York, while Spencer Arrighetti is slated to get the ball for the Astros. Both teams feature new looks in the lineup, as the Mets inked superstar outfielder Juan Soto to a megadeal in free agency, while the Astros lost Alex Bregman in free agency and traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs. Houston mitigated those losses by getting Isaac Paredes in that trade with Chicago and signing first baseman Christian Walker from the Arizona Diamondbacks in free agency. 

The Astros are -122 money-line favorites (bet $122 to win $100), according to SportsLine consensus, while the Mets are +103 underdogs (bet $100 to win $103). For those looking at prop bets for Saturday’s New York-Houston matchup, Arrighetti’s over/under for strikeouts is 5.5, while Canning’s is 3.5. The Over is favored for both, with Arrighetti at -130 and Canning at -135. This game features two of baseball’s most prolific home run hitters in Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso, whose anytime home run prop bets for Saturday are +290 and +320, respectively. Soto, who homered on Friday, is +370 to hit a home run on Saturday.

Let’s dive into the SportsLine model’s projections for Mets-Astros for the major markets in this showdown.

NEW YORK METS at HOUSTON ASTROS | 3/29 | 7:15 p.m. ET

Money line

Pick: Mets +103

New York wins in 53% of simulations

Run line

Pick: Mets +1.5 (-203)

New York covers in 73% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under

Pick: Over 8.5

The Over hits in 59% of simulations

Projected score: Mets 5.1, Astros 4.6