Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 K’s
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers 10:10 PM EST
Logan Gilbert is delivering another strong campaign in 2025, anchoring Seattle’s rotation with reliability and efficiency. Over 14 starts, he’s logged 72.1 innings and compiled a 3–4 record with a 3.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 105 strikeouts, translating to a robust 13.06 K/9. His control remained sharp as well, limiting walks to just 2.24 BB/9, aiding a stellar K/BB ratio of about 6.0. His actual wOBA allowed (.270) closely matched his expected wOBA (.269), indicating his surface results were backed by quality execution, not luck. Gilbert’s season features several highlights. For example, on July 22nd, he punched out 10 over 6⅓ innings against Milwaukee. Over the last couple of seasons, he’s been dominant at home as well. He’s logged 26 Ks in his last 3 starts combined, and I don’t see him slowing down here against the Rangers at home.
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Joe Ryan Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians 7:10 PM EST
Joe Ryan has continued to ascend as one of MLB’s most reliable pitchers in 2025. In 21 appearances (20 starts), he’s logged 121.1 innings and compiled a 10–5 record, with a stellar 2.82 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, ranking among the league’s best in WHIP and ERA. He recorded 137 strikeouts (about 10.18 K/9) while walking just 24 batters, highlighting elite control and sustained performance deep into the season. He’s coming off one of his worst starts of the season, giving up 4 earned runs to the Nationals. Ryan is the type of pitcher I want to back after a bad start. He has a favorable matchup in this one, going against the Guardians, who have struggled against good pitching this season.
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 K’s
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays 7:07 PM EST
Gausman has logged 21 starts and 122⅔ innings for Toronto. He comes in with a 7–7 record, 3.82 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP, while striking out 122 batters, a solid 9.0 K/9 rate, and allowing just 37 walks, translating to a walk rate around 2.7 BB/9, demonstrating elite control and durability so far this season. While Gausman’s strikeout rate dipped slightly compared to previous years, his 24.5% ranking places him in the top third of the league. In his last two starts, he has a combined 18 strikeouts. He’ll be up against the Kansas City Royals, who’ve struggled at the plate and specifically struggled when playing away from Kansas City. I like Gausman to have another solid outing in this one.
Texas (57-52) vs Seattle (57-52)
August 1, 2025 at 10:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Seattle -1.5 — Over/Under: +7.5
