If you watch our show, Tennis Bets Live, you should know I was on Carlos Alcaraz to win the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters at +175. I put 1.5 units down on Alcaraz, which would return 2.63 units—so I’m in a great position to hedge Sunday’s final. I’ve gone ahead and added 0.63 units on Lorenzo Musetti at +350. That sets me up to win 2 units if Alcaraz lifts the trophy and 0.70 units if Musetti pulls off the upset.

If you tailed the Alcaraz future, this type of hedge makes a lot of sense. But if you’re entering the market fresh, the best approach is to lay 4.5 games with Alcaraz.

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Now, to be completely transparent, I don’t believe Alcaraz is definitively 4.5 games better than Musetti on clay—at least not in a vacuum.

The Spaniard has certainly looked better in Monte-Carlo than he has at any other point in 2025, but his level hasn’t been flawless. He’s had stretches of erratic serving and sprinkled in some poorly timed errors. What’s saved him has been his ability to raise his game in the biggest moments—the sign of a true champion.