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North Carolina Tar Heels’ NCAA men’s tournament preview (0:41)
Joe Lunardi breaks down North Carolina’s NCAA tournament prospects. (0:41)
For those rooting for chaos in March Madness, picking upsets in the opening round can be an enticing proposition.
But which double-digit seeds actually have a chance to pull it off?
In 12 of the past 13 NCAA tournaments, a First Four team has advanced to the second round. And 11 seeds are catching up with 12 seeds in their historical upset rates.
To find this year’s potential candidates, we consulted ESPN’s BPI projections to identify the 10 matchups with the highest probabilities of an upset — just keep in mind that probability does not mean predictability when filling out your brackets.
Note: Because two No. 6 vs. No. 11 games are still to be determined by the outcomes of First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Giant Killers model takes all possible matchups into consideration.
(11) North Carolina vs. (6) Ole Miss
Upset chance: 55%
Potential matchup: 4:05 p.m. ET on Friday
The percentage might come as a surprise, but as we mentioned earlier, a First Four team has gone on to win a first-round game in 12 of 13 tournaments. So why not the controversial “last team in” Carolina?
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The Heels have won eight of their past 10 games — with both losses coming to Duke — not coincidentally because of the emergence of frontcourt players Ven-Allen Lubin and Jae’Lyn Withers, who have combined to average 24 points and 14 rebounds in this stretch.
If North Carolina survives San Diego State in Tuesday’s First Four matchup, a first-round date with Ole Miss could come down to which team’s backcourt plays better.
(12) Colorado State vs. (5) Memphis
Upset chance: 47%
2 p.m. ET on Friday
Colorado State is coming in hot, winners of 10 straight en route to stealing a tourney bid. And though Memphis is hardly wilting entering the Big Dance, with only one loss in the past two months, it was surprising to see the Tigers land such a high seed. The model agrees, and the Rams are actually favored to win at ESPN BET.
It will be fun to watch two of the nation’s best go at it: CSU’s do-it-all star, Nique Clifford (19.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 4.4 APG) and the highest-scoring player in this year’s tournament, PJ Haggerty (21.8 PPG).
Two things to keep an eye on in this one will be whether Haggerty’s backcourt mate, Tyrese Hunter (foot), is able to go — and how well Colorado State does in limiting Memphis on the offensive boards.
(11) VCU vs. (6) BYU
Upset chance: 43%
4:05 p.m. ET on Thursday
Contrasting styles in this one: BYU takes 48% of its shots from deep, shoots it well and likes to keep the score in the 80s and 90s. VCU, meanwhile, leads the nation in effective FG% defense and likes to force turnovers and cash them in at the other end.
This is one of the most intriguing first-round matchups. The Rams will look to prey on the Cougars’ turnover-prone ways and guard the 3-point line to advance to the second round.
(11) Texas vs. (6) Illinois
Upset chance: 42%
Potential matchup: 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday
The Longhorns are just the fourth 15-loss team to receive an at-large bid, but that was against the stiffest conference competition we have ever seen. Battled tested? Check.
Their inclusion also gives us a chance to watch star freshman Tre Johnson in the tournament; he will be a handful for the Illini. If Texas prevails against Xavier in the First Four on Wednesday to set up this matchup with Illinois, which version of the Fighting Illini will the Longhorns get — the one that suffered six of its nine losses to Big Ten opponents by 14-plus points? Or the one that blasted Oregon, Indiana and Michigan on the road by a combined 77 points?
(11) Xavier vs. (6) Illinois
Upset chance: 39%
Potential matchup: 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday
Xavier is quite familiar with the Giant Killer role, having reached the Elite Eight in 2017 as an 11-seed and the Sweet 16 in 2012 as a 10-seed. The Musketeers are playing their best ball, particularly Ryan Conwell, who is averaging 24.4 points on 59% shooting from 3 in his past five games.
If Xavier gets past Texas on Wednesday, how it fares on the defensive boards against a big Illinois team that rebounds a lot of those 3-point misses will be telling.
(11) San Diego State vs. (6) Ole Miss
Upset chance: 37%
Potential matchup: 4:05 p.m. ET on Friday
Provided San Diego State wins its First Four game against North Carolina on Tuesday, the recipe for success will not change. It’s all about defense. But the Aztecs’ odds of knocking off the Rebels would improve significantly if 7-foot redshirt freshman Magoon Gwath, the Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Year, is able to return and affect the game. He has been out since injuring his knee against Utah State on Feb. 22.
San Diego State will need to make an experienced and generally unflappable Ole Miss backcourt uncomfortable to get some easy buckets, since that doesn’t always come so easily for the Aztecs in its half-court offense.
(12) UC San Diego vs. (5) Michigan
Upset chance: 33%
10 p.m. ET on Thursday
The script is rich: The Tritons are only the third team in more than 50 years to make the tournament in their first year of eligibility. And their top four scorers are Division II transfers. Oh yeah, and the Tritons can play, too — they are top 10 in the nation in turnover percentage on offense and defense. That differential in possessions alone is quite impactful, but they also shoot 37% from deep, where they take nearly half of their shots.
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Michigan presents its own set of problems for opponents: The Wolverines’ pair of 7-footers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, actually run pick-and-rolls with each other.
This should be a fun one in Denver.
(11) Drake vs. (6) Missouri
Upset chance: 27%
7:35 p.m. ET on Thursday
From one heartwarming D-II story to another, the Bulldogs have four such transfers who followed their coach to Des Moines. That group includes point guard Bennett Stirtz, who almost never comes off the court and also stuffs the stat sheet.
What makes this matchup extra interesting are the styles of play. Drake wants to limit possessions and play hellacious defense. It has given up 60 or fewer points in half of its games, while Missouri has scored more than 80 points in 25 of its 33 games.
(12) Liberty vs. (5) Oregon
Upset chance: 24%
10:10 p.m. ET on Friday
Both teams feature smaller backcourts, but the model gives the Flames a fighting chance because of how well they shoot: They are 58% on 2-pointers as a team while averaging 10.6 3-pointers per game on 39% shooting from deep (all top 15 in the country).
Liberty will have to find an answer for Oregon 7-footer Nate Bittle, who has arguably been playing the best ball of his four-year career over the past month.
(13) Yale vs. (4) Texas A&M
Upset chance: 22%
7:25 p.m. ET on Thursday
Just a year ago, Yale was in these exact shoes: a 13-seed against an SEC foe in the first round. Ask Bruce Pearl and Auburn how that went.
The Bulldogs’ backcourt is strong, with Ivy League Player of the Year and the conference’s three-time defensive player of the year Bez Mbeng paired with big-time shot-maker John Poulakidas. The Aggies’ best offense is their second (and, often, third) shot — they grab a ridiculous 42% of their own misses — so the Bulldogs will have to hold their own in that regard.
