Absolutely not. Could it stand to be a little shorter? Sure. Do the referees need to be more judicious with when they intervene? I’d argue they do. But the real problem the NBA faces is, in my opinion, a PR one. Its loudest voices should spend less time pearl-clutching and more time celebrating. Claire de Lune
Star players sit, games blur together and offense is unchecked. I don’t know if I’d call it a crisis, but put it this way: Disney, NBC and Amazon Prime Video did not pay $76bn for this product. They’re betting that it will be fixed. The answer might be structural: tweak the rules to restore physicality. If defense matters again, maybe the games will too. Bryan Armen Graham
Well, if you count rights-holding networks badmouthing the product, the league blacking out local games and underselling on-court storylines as a crisis – then yes. If you count the in-season tournament, load management player protocols and the endless GOAT debates as a crisis – then also yes. I’m not suggesting fewer games (82 always felt right); I’m suggesting everyone take them more seriously. Talking to you, Adam Silver. Andrew Lawrence
Can I be in a crisis when my organization commands $76bn in broadcast rights fees? That sad, a few tweaks might help. Spice up the in-season tournament by working point spreads into real-life results – eg the Celtics need to cover v the Hornets to move on – and awarding a conditional first-round draft pick known as “The Emirate” to the winner. Bring international play into the All-Star Weekend format and if you must, trim three or four games off the schedule. Oh, and please, please, lower ticket prices. Thank you! David Lengel
There are multiple issues with the NBA such as an overindulgence of three-pointers, the forgettable All-Star game and perpetual foul-hunting. However, the notion of a crisis is a bit overblown. The Western Conference remained highly competitive until the final day of the season, the playoffs feature a mix of All-NBA veterans and rising young stars, and the NBA’s primetime viewership is up double digits from last season. There is space for improvement, but the league is far from being in crisis. AR Shaw
Team that will be most missed from the playoffs
It’s a shame that Kevin Durant, one of the most skilled scorers this game has ever seen, isn’t going to make so much as a play-in-tournament appearance this year. To say the Phoenix Suns have been a disappointment is a woeful understatement, but it’s less the team I’ll be missing and more the inimitable presence of the Slim Reaper. CDL
The Suns. Say what you will about their flaws, but they had three of the NBA’s best shot-makers in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal and still couldn’t make it work. A brutal cap sheet and murky future means this might have been their last real shot. BAG
Can I be selfish and say the Chicago Bulls? For the first time since their ethereal first-half campaign to the 2021-22 season, the Bulls have been genuinely fun to watch – and the life of the party has been Josh Giddey, the triple-double threat who harks to the days when a healthy Lonzo Ball was leading the break. He showed enough to earn a long-term extension and another running mate to help get Chicago into the play-in stage. AL
The team or the players? I’m already missing KD and his band of grumpy, really upset Suns, and of course, we’re all praying to the god of your choice that Victor Wembanyama will be back next season. Overall, the Philadelphia 76ers mess is always a good follow, and I think we’ll all miss the day-to-day drama Joel Embiid and friends bring to the first round of the playoffs. DL
The San Antonio Spurs. The debut of “Playoff Wemby” appeared to be a possibility after the Spurs acquired De’Aaron Fox before the trade deadline. But season-ending injuries to Wembanyama and Fox spoiled San Antonio’s playoff hopes. The combination of Wembanyama, Fox, the savvy veteran Chris Paul and rookie sensation Stephon Castle would have created havoc in the postseason. With better health, we can expect the Spurs to do damage in next year’s playoffs. ARS
Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks are bidding to end the team’s 52-year NBA title drought. Photograph: Elsa/Getty Images
High seed at risk of going out early
Vegas doesn’t have a lot of faith in second seeded-Houston in the playoffs, and neither do I. It’s commendable (hat tip to head coach Ime Udoka) that a super-young Rockets team were able to go from missing the play-in tournament last year to ending this year as the No 2 seed, but an unproven, youth-heavy, offensively challenged roster will likely get exposed in their first postseason outing. CDL
The Cleveland Cavaliers have depth, structure and a sparkling record, but playoff basketball is a different beast. Darius Garland has shrunk from the moment before, Evan Mobley remains a work in progress on offense and Donovan Mitchell can’t carry the load alone. If the tempo dips and the shots stop falling, this slick machine could unravel fast – especially against a battle-tested opponent. BAG
The New York Knicks, who blew a 28-point lead while losing to the top-seeded Cavaliers last Saturday to fall to 0-10 against top-three NBA teams. Point guard Jalen Brunson is one of a number of their key players dealing with injuries – none of which can be blamed on Tom Thibodeau’s withering instruction anymore, apparently. All of this sets them up poorly for their matchup against the resurgent Pistons and Cade Cunningham, a Knick-killer in the making. (He averaged better than 30 points, eight assists and five boards against them.) AL
Isn’t that the Knicks? Their fanbase certainly thinks so. A year ago New York were the out-hustle, out-muscle team that wanted it more than you. Today, they’re a fancy score-at-will side minus the edgy intangibles their fans lauded. Coincidentally, their opponents from Detroit have become the NBA’s newest junkyard dogs, ready to rip through the softened flesh of their now-bougie competition. Knicks fans can only hope the Pistons aren’t quite ready to pull it off. DL
The Rockets. Coach Ime Udoka did the unexpected by leading the Rockets to the No 2 seed in the rigorous Western Conference. But achieving the second-best record in the West appears to be a pyrrhic victory as Houston are underdogs against the Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler-led Golden State Warriors. The scrappy Rockets will make each game uncomfortable for the more playoff-experienced Warriors, but expect an early exit for Houston’s youth movement. ARS
Long shot to win
Two of the greatest playoff performers of their generation are now on the same team. I refuse to count out Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and the Warriors. They have a high-level defense, a lot of perimeter athleticism, and two guys who, on any given night, have a chance of being the best player on the floor. That sounds like a dark-horse contender to me. CDL
The Warriors. They started the season a hot mess. But since acquiring Jimmy Butler, they have been rolling. Steph is still Steph, Draymond Green is locking up again and their defense has quietly surged. With championship DNA and a renewed edge, they’re peaking at the perfect time. BAG
It’s weird to call a team that has Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Norman Powell and Ty Lue on the sideline a dark horse. But so it goes when that team is the Los Angeles Clippers. While the Lakers and the Warriors helped the fairytale championship narrative with their blockbuster mid-season trades, the Clippers have been solid, steady and Leonard is looking like the Leonard of old .This could be their year. AL
The Clippers are a scorching hot No 5 seed who went 18-3 with eight straight wins to finish the regular season. That included a dramatic overtime victory at Golden State in their 82nd game to avoid the dreaded play-in. That’s mojo and that’s LA when Kawhi Leonard shows up, laces up and plays basketball. Now, if James Harden actually carries his regular-season skillset into the playoffs, these Clips could actually crack the colorful western cohort and sail into the finals. DL
The Clippers. Finishing the season with an 18-3 record, the Clippers are the most feared team heading into the playoffs. While LeBron James and Luka Dončić are the more celebrated NBA stars in Tinseltown, the Clippers have embraced the underdog role and are a dark horse to change the narrative with a Hollywood ending in the NBA finals. ARS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led the Oklahoma City Thunder to one of the most dominant regular-season campaigns in NBA history. Photograph: Joshua Gateley/Getty Images
Most important player this postseason
It’s rare that the player upon which the pendulum swings is the same in two consecutive years, but once again, it’s Luka Dončić. I see the Lakers as having just as good of a chance as anyone to win the title this year. But as evidenced by the Lakers’ recent duel with the Warriors, when he isn’t firing on all cylinders, that chance diminishes exponentially. Los Angeles need Dončić to be a top-tier superstar for four rounds to hoist the trophy. CDL
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been an MVP candidate all year. Now comes the real test. OKC are deep, disciplined and dangerous, but their ceiling depends on SGA’s ability to create in crunch time. If he owns the moment, the Thunder could fast-track their rise from rebuild to finals. BAG
After the Jimmy Butler trade, the Warriors went from Cancun-bound after the regular season to title contenders once again. More than just the best running mate Curry has had since Kevin Durant, Butler can carry the offensive load when Curry’s off the floor and take over games defensively. How the Warriors ever got away with him still boggles the brain. AL
After dominating the regular season with a 68-14 record, Oklahoma City enter a postseason where anything short of a championships would be a disappointment. All of it rests on the wide Canadian shoulders of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. As the head of the snake and the odds-on MVP favorite, SGA is solely responsible for delivering the hardware to OKC. And it’s a fair amount of pressure, especially after the Thunder were ousted last season by Luka’s Mavericks in the West semis. DL
LeBron James will be the most important player in the postseason until he retires. James is not only competing against current NBA players, he receives the most praise and ridicule when compared to his Hall of Fame predecessors. Win or lose, James will be the most discussed player in the off-season. If he captures another title at 40, it adds to the lore and never-ending debate over who is the greatest basketball player of all time. ARS
Eastern Conference finals
Celtics over Cavaliers CDL
Celtics over Pacers BAG
Celtics over Cavaliers AL
Celtics over Pacers DL
Celtics over Cavaliers ARS
Western Conference finals
Lakers over Thunder CDL
Thunder over Warriors BAG
Warriors over Clippers AL
Clippers over Lakers DL
Lakers over Clippers ARS
Your NBA champion will be …
Los Angeles Lakers. I’ll be accused of homerism for this pick, which I am prepared for. But I know a team on a special run when I see one, and the Lakers are that team. For Luka Dončić to get a ring in the same season he was unceremoniously shipped off by Dallas, for LeBron James to have a chance at a fifth championship before he retires, is something I can’t see either of these generational talents letting slip through their fingers. Lakers v Celtics will be a battle for the ages, and it’s truly a coin toss between the two in my estimation. But if the Lakers can get through the entire gauntlet that awaits them in the West, I simply don’t see them letting the chance at saying “job finished” pass them by. CDL
Oklahoma City Thunder. They’ve recorded the highest net rating in NBA history – better than the ‘96 Bulls or KD Warriors – but still feel oddly overlooked. SGA is playing at an MVP level, Jalen Williams is a rising star and Chet Holmgren shores up the middle. Their elite perimeter defense, depth and cohesion make them dangerous in any series. They may be young, but they’re relentless, unselfish and unafraid. This isn’t a fluke; it’s a coronation in waiting. BAG
Golden State Warriors. They’ve got the best shooter who ever lived, one of the game’s all-time defenders and the best end-to-end player. Add Steve Kerr and the Warriors’ dynamite bench to the equation, and it’s tough to see the team losing out on a chance to win their fifth championship in 10 years. And if they happen to beat the Lakers along the way, the GOAT debate is going into overdrive – and history might ultimately peg LeBron as the loser. AL
Boston Celtics. The wild second-half run of the Kawhi Clippers will finally come to an end when the clock strikes midnight against the Eastern Conference titans. Even the version of Harden who shows up for the playoffs isn’t enough to beat the Celtics, who overcome Jaylen Brown’s bum knee to oust the Clippers in seven. That’s because a healthy Kristaps Porzingis fills all voids and all baskets, propelling the dominant Jayson Tatum to swiftly avenge his Olympic benching while winning a second consecutive championship. DL
Los Angeles Lakers. The Mavericks handed the Lakers a generational gift with the Luka Dončić trade, and LA will reap the benefits in June. The trade elevated the Lakers’ playoff chances from a second-round exit to legit title contenders, but the Lakers will face the toughest path to the finals with a first-round matchup against Anthony Edwards and the possibility of facing Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard or leading MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in later rounds. Dončić and LeBron have both carried teams to the NBA Ffnals, and together, they have the offensive capabilities to overwhelm the most elite players and their teams. Expect the Lakers and Celtics to continue their historic rivalry with another showdown in the NBA finals with the Lakers as the last team standing. ARS
