NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket picks, Cinderella teams, best upsets: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times

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The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been to the Sweet 16 or better the last nine editions of the NCAA Tournament, but Mark Few’s squad will have an uphill battle to keep that streak alive this year. Gonzaga received a No. 8 seed in the 2025 March Madness bracket and will begin its tournament on Thursday against No. 9 seed Georgia in a Midwest Region matchup. The winner will likely take on No. 1 seed Houston, which has a Sweet 16 streak (5) of its own, in the second round. Should you advance Gonzaga into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament 2025 or is this the season that the streak finally ends? Those are the types of questions you’ll need to address as you’re filling out your 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks and entering NCAA bracket predictions. Before making any 2025 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past six tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run a year ago and nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16. It also nailed Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016. There’s simply no reason to rely on luck when there’s proven technology to help you dominate your 2025 March Madness pools. 

Now, with the 2025 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

2025 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2025 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Mississippi State vs. No. 9 seed Baylor in the East Region. Baylor is led by senior forward Norchad Omier, who averages 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Their freshman guard, VJ Edgecombe averaged 15.0 points per game and projects to be a high lottery pick in June’s NBA Draft. The Aggies limp into March Madness having lost five of their last seven games, including by 12 to Missouri in the SEC Tournament. They are led by guard Josh Hubbard, who averaged 18.7 PPG. This matchup, which seems likely to be close, tips off on Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET.

Also in the East Region, BYU vs. VCU figures to be a pivotal 6 vs. 11 matchup. BYU isn’t a mid-major anymore as a member of the Big 12, but these two programs were a couple of the most prominent mid-majors in the country in the 2000s and 2010s. However, it’s been a while since either program has managed an NCAA Tournament win, with VCU last winning a tournament game in 2016 and BYU last achieving that milestone in 2014. One of these teams will finally end their drought on Thursday and this should be a strength-on-strength matchup. BYU ranks 11th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency while VCU ranks 25th in defensive adjusted efficiency.

The third matchup to watch in the East Region features No. 3 seed Wisconsin vs. No. 14 seed Montana. The Grizzlies are making their first March Madness appearance since 2019 and they have only made it out of the first round once in 11 trips dating back to 1991. They should be full of confidence, however, since they have won 14 of their last 15 games and were runners-up in the Big Sky Tournament. Montana’s swagger could be a threat to Wisconsin, who were a No. 5 seed in last year’s tournament and lost to No. 12 James Madison 72-61. Senior guard John Tonje leads the Badgers with 19.2 average points per game, and the team will lean on him to help overwhelm a Montana defense that gave up 72.9 average points a night this season. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2025? And which 2025 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that’s nailed 24 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last six tournaments.

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