With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard.
CARN BEFORE THE STORM: Former central bank chief Mark Carney was anointed the new PM of Canada last night as the Liberal Party closes the door on the Justin Trudeau era. Carney won the support of a whopping 85 percent of Liberal Party members following a two-month leadership contest, with Trudeau bidding a teary farewell after almost a decade in power. Carney, 59, is an experienced technocrat who as a central banker guided the Canadian economy through the 2008 global crash and then the U.K. economy through the turmoil of Brexit. Given the catastrophic state of U.S.-Canada relations and sense of impending economic doom north of the border, you can only assume he’s a glutton for punishment.
Inbox from hell: Carney should have his first call with President Donald Trump this week, possibly even as early as today. There’s certainly plenty to discuss — starting with the brutal tariffs Trump slapped on Canada last week; the tit-for-tat tariffs on U.S. electricity imports being imposed by Ontario Premier Doug Ford from today; the prospect of massive lumber and dairy tariffs coming down the track (per Trump last Friday); the looming removal of the tariff carveout for all manner of Canadian goods on April 2; not to mention that whole annexation business. Good luck!
Mark my words: “The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country,” Carney warned in a solemn victory speech last night, per POLITICO’s Mickey Djuric and Nick Taylor-Vaisey. “If they succeed, they will destroy our way of life.” (Imagine telling someone in, say, 2022, that the next Canadian PM would be making a speech like that.) “We didn’t ask for this fight,” Carney added, “but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.”
You’re the Don: But maybe Carney should be grateful. Since Trump started waging economic and rhetorical war on America’s neighbor to the north, the Liberals’ disastrous poll ratings have recovered dramatically. With federal elections looming, voters appear to be rallying to the ruling party and turning their backs on the opposition Conservatives led by Elon Musk-endorsed Pierre Poilievre, who was once 20 points clear in the polls but now finds himself painted as too close ideologically to the widely despised Trump. (It’s not just Canada, btw: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum now has an astonishing approval rating of 85 percent.)
Further reading: POLITICO’s Ottawa Playbook guru Nick Taylor-Vaisey sat down for an in-depth Q&A with top colleague Robbie Gramer last night on why Carney won, and what it means for U.S.-Canada relations. … And POLITICO’s Canada editor Sue Allan has a brisk dive into “55 Things to Know About Canada’s Next Prime Minister, Mark Carney.”
HAPPY SHUTDOWN WEEK! Yes, it’s that time of year again. One of the weirdest rituals of American politics returns to the fore this week as the government of the world’s richest nation prepares to literally shut itself down while politicians bicker about funding levels. The latest federal government funding deadline looms this Friday night, meaning Congress will spend the next few days fighting over how to avoid a damaging shutdown. The expectation in D.C. is that a short-term funding bill will ultimately be passed, although no one knows for sure until the deal is done. In the meantime, we all get to obsess over this holdout Republican congressman and that wavering Democratic senator, and ignore the zillions of other important stories raging around the world. Good times.
Mike dropped: Those paying attention over the weekend will know that Speaker Mike Johnson published his proposed funding bill — known as a continuing resolution, or CR — on Saturday, in close consultation with the White House. He’s planning a floor vote in the House tomorrow night and, as ever, will need the support of almost every single member of his Republican conference to get it through. Trump issued a caps lock-heavy call for party unity on Saturday afternoon, which should help his cause. But the numbers are still tight.
The ones to watch: My ace POLITICO colleagues who write our sister Inside Congress newsletter (sign up here) report that at least one GOP representative — Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) — is a no, and that several others are still on the fence, including Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Cory Mills (R-Fla.). They’ll surely fall in line before Tuesday is out … won’t they?
If so … Then the real action is going to be in the Senate later this week, where filibuster rules (plus the likely opposition of GOP maverick Rand Paul) mean Majority Leader John Thune needs the support of at least eight Democrats to get the bill through. The big question is whether enough Senate Dems are prepared to help the GOP out of a hole — or whether they are prepared to take the risk of being blamed for a damaging government shutdown.
The big problem: Many Dems were expecting (or at least hoping for) a “clean” CR which focused purely on extra funds to keep government going, rather than tacking on other Republican baubles as well. But as POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Jennifer Scholtes reported over the weekend, the seven-month funding patch proposed by Johnson would instead “add billions of dollars in spending for deportations, veterans’ health care and the military while cutting an even greater amount of funding for non-defense programs.” Dems in swing states who’d wanted to back the bill are not wholly impressed.
So it’s all eyes on the Hill this afternoon … as members from both parties return from the weekend break. Expect the clamor for quotes and comments from the waiting press pack to be even noisier than usual — and get ready for a torrent of rumors swirling around social media and group texts. As ever, our Inside Congress liveblog is the place to be as the drama unfolds.
The bigger picture: It hardly needs saying that amidst the tariff turmoil and the uncertain job market, the last thing the U.S. economy needs is a government shutdown. President Trump made headlines around the world yesterday when he refused to rule out a recession this year — “I hate to predict things like that,” he told Fox News — and it was striking to see him duck the question again onboard Air Force One last night. Instead, he simply told reporters his tariffs will make America “so rich, you’re not going to know where to spend all that money.” Here’s the clip.
A message from the American Bankers Association:
Congress has a great opportunity to lift up rural America. By supporting the bipartisan Access to Credit for our Rural Economy (ACRE) Act of 2025, lawmakers can lower the cost of credit for farmers and ranchers trying to navigate a challenging economic cycle. The legislation will also drive down the cost of homeownership in more than 17,000 rural communities across the country. Learn more about this important effort to support farm country.
WAR AND PEACE
THE THREE AMIGOS: It’s a big week too in geopolitics as President Trump dispatches his top team for talks with Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads to Saudi Arabia today along with national security adviser Mike Waltz and negotiations guru Steve Witkoff to discuss the outline of a peace agreement with senior officials from Ukraine. (Rubio is also due to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this week.) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also in Saudi today for an MBS meeting — but he’s due to head home before his staff begin talks with Rubio and company tomorrow.
Deal or no deal? The expectation among America’s allies is that the U.S. and Ukraine will sign their long-awaited deal on critical minerals either ahead of or at the start of this round of talks. If correct, that means the deal should be unveiled either today or early tomorrow, 10 days on from the disastrous White House bust-up between Zelenskyy and Trump. It’ll be a big moment when it comes. In a sign of thawing relations, Trump told reporters on board Air Force One last night that the U.S. has “just about” lifted the pause on intelligence-sharing with Kyiv — suggesting some sort of breakthrough is imminent.
But but but: In order to restart military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, Trump wants more than just the minerals deal, NBC’s Courtney Kube, Kristen Welker and Carol Lee reported yesterday. “He also wants to see a change in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s attitude toward peace talks, [two U.S.] officials said, including a willingness to make concessions such as giving up territory to Russia. Trump also wants Zelenskyy to make some movement toward elections in Ukraine and possibly toward stepping down as his country’s leader, the officials said.” U.S. officials tell Reuters’ Steve Holland, Gram Slattery and Daphne Psaledakis that ultimately they want to see Ukraine is serious about ending the war.
Spelling it out: “What we’re expecting to hear and talk about [is] what they need in terms of, of course, security guarantees, but also, how do we get the ceasefire?” NSA Mike Waltz told Fox News late last night, per Laura Rozen. “How do we get to a broader peace deal? And what we’re talking to both sides about is what compromises they need to make … President Trump isn’t taking sides.” That final sentence is still remarkable to hear, even now.
Meanwhile on social media: Early this morning, Rubio announced on X that “we are officially cancelling 83% of the programs at USAID,” and thanked DOGE for its work. It’s the latest olive branch between Rubio and Musk, whose explosive clash in a Cabinet meeting last week drove days of headlines. Yesterday, Rubio teamed up with Musk in an online shouting match with top Polish diplomat Radosław Sikorski over his perceived lack of gratitude to the U.S. “Be quiet, small man,” the world’s richest person tweeted grumpily at the foreign minister of Poland. It’s no way to spend a Sunday, I’m sure you’ll agree.
While out in the real world: Russia and North Korea are making progress in pushing back Ukrainian troops from Kursk, the sliver of Russian land Ukrainian troops seized last year and hoped to use for leverage in any peace talks, per the WSJ. Trump, remember, threatened Russia with fresh sanctions on Friday after it increased its bombardment of Ukraine despite his push for peace. Trump was visibly unimpressed to be asked last night if Vladimir Putin is disrespecting him by pressing ahead with the war.
ELSEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Further along the Arabian Peninsula, Israel and Hamas will begin talks in Doha today about the next phase of their ceasefire and hostage release agreement, along with Qatari and Egyptian mediators. Witkoff is expected to join midweek — not least because there’s still one American hostage held by Hamas who’s believed to be alive. It comes after Israel choked off more electricity supplies to Gaza at the weekend, per CNN.
On the home front: The story tearing up U.S. social media last night was the arrest by ICE of Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian activist and grad student at Columbia University — an attempt to make good on Rubio’s pledge to revoke student visas for protesters deemed aligned with Hamas, per ABC. But there’s a twist: Khalil’s lawyer said his client was actually here on a green card, which comes with way more protections than a student visa.
Doubling down: Rubio insisted green cards will simply be yanked in such cases, too. Khalil’s lawyers are pushing back hard, and this is headed straight to the courts. Liberals on social media are in uproar, as you can imagine, while MAGA types are doubling down. Expect to hear plenty more in the hours and days ahead.
Meanwhile in Iran: While Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed Trump’s proposal for nuclear talks this weekend, the U.S. continues to find ways to ramp up the pressure on Tehran. The Trump administration axed Iraq’s sanctions waiver to get Iranian gas and electricity, per WSJ’s Jared Malsin, which is aimed at further damaging the Iranian economy but also risks altering U.S.-Iraqi relations.
A message from the American Bankers Association:
The bipartisan Access to Credit for our Rural Economy (ACRE) Act of 2025 would provide critical economic support to rural communities. Learn more.
DOGE-EAT-DOGE WORLD
THE CHAOS CONTINUES: After a rocky week which saw him slapped down by Trump, row with various Cabinet members and lose another shiny space rocket in a shower of debris, Elon Musk is … just carrying on. Trump’s favorite White House aide spent the weekend making up with Rubio; making nice with far-right activist Laura Loomer; tweeting about government fraud under Joe Biden; complaining about elections in Romania; attacking the legacy media and plenty more. And with the shuttering of the Department of Education still thought to be imminent, expect plenty more Musk action before the week is out.
Speaking of making nice: Trump has encouraged his podcast pal Steve Bannon to stop fighting with Musk and meet with him privately, NYT’s Tyler Pager and Maggie Haberman report — though no such meeting has happened as yet. Bannon continues to rail against Musk on both economic issues and immigration, seeking to steer the MAGA movement in a more explicitly conservative populist direction.
No more credit: Though it’s flown largely under the radar, the monthlong freeze on government credit cards directed by Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency — an effort to rein in expenses and spending — “is upending work across the government,” WaPo’s Hannah Natanson, Emily Davies and Dan Lamothe report. “Government scientists who study food safety say they are running out of cleaning fluid for their labs; federal aviation workers report cuts to travel for urgent work; and contractors who help identify U.S. soldiers killed in combat were told to pause their efforts, said three forensic genealogists who, like other workers interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.”
No more watchdogs: Fired special counsel Hampton Dellinger and several ousted agency IGs told CBS’ Scott Pelley on last night’s “60 Minutes” that Trump is removing all possible independent checks on power and abuse. “I don’t think we have watchdog agencies anymore,” Dellinger said. “The inspector generals are gone. The head of the Office of Government Ethics is gone. I’m gone. The independent watchdogs who are working on behalf of the American taxpayers, on behalf of military veterans, they’ve been pushed out.”
The fallout: Musk’s funding freezes have left thousands of scholars in the U.S. and abroad in limbo and panic, AP’s Olivia Diaz and Heather Hollingsworth report. Many federal workers are struggling with worsened mental health and even suicidal ideation in the wake of Trump’s cuts, NBC’s Natasha Korecki reports. Some have had trouble sleeping, come down with new physical ailments or started taking anti-anxiety medication, WaPo’s Maura Judkis reports.
A message from the American Bankers Association:
Urge Congress to support the ACRE Act which will lower the cost of credit in rural America. Learn more.
BEST OF THE REST
ON TODAY’S SCHEDULE: Trump will meet with tech CEOs at 2 p.m., sign executive orders at 3 p.m. and hold a ceremonial swearing-in for Sean Curran as Secret Service director at 5 p.m. … VP JD Vance will address the National League of Cities’ Congressional City Conference, along with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and other top politicians. … HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will meet with food industry executives, as our colleagues reported last week.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Reps. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Morgan Luttrell (R-Texas), Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), John McGuire (R-Va.) and Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.). There have never been more former Navy SEALs in Congress. And while there are ideological differences between them, all seven reflect the “warrior mentality” that has increasingly becoming a defining feature of the MAGA movement and Republican Party, POLITICO Magazine’s Ian Ward reports. Unlike the military veteran Republican politicians of yesteryear, these ex-Seals “have eagerly embraced a more combative style of politics — one that favors partisan warfare, legislative brinksmanship and an open embrace of Trump.” Many of them share a sense that Congress is another battlefront: “Our entire lifestyle was built around conflict and protection of our country,” said Luttrell.
IMMIGRATION FILES: The revival and expansion of Trump’s first-term travel bans could dominate headlines later this week, as multiple outlets have reported they’re coming soon. At the same time, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem announced Todd Lyons as the new acting ICE director and Madison Sheahan as deputy director, per AP’s Christine Fernando. Lyons previously was a leader within ICE’s enforcement branch, and his elevation comes as the White House presses to ramp up mass deportations.
The effects: Across the country, many undocumented immigrants have lately stayed home out of fear of arrest, NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien and Miriam Jordan report. The ramifications are not only psychological but economic: Industries like construction and agriculture are struggling with shortages and slowdowns, with the impacts likely to hit all Americans soon. And as Trump has effectively shut down the entire legal asylum system, WaPo’s Arelis Hernández has a must-read feature about a Mexican businessman who was kidnapped and raped by a cartel, and now fears for his life with the U.S. doors closed.
TRADE WARS: At a massive rally in Mexico City yesterday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum trumpeted the latest delay in many U.S. tariffs on her country — and said she doesn’t expect next month’s threatened reciprocal tariffs to apply to Mexico, per Bloomberg’s Matthew Malinowski. As for the tariffs that are in place, Chinatowns across the country stand to suffer from the levies on China, from which these neighborhoods import goods they can’t get elsewhere, NBC’s Kimmy Yam reports from NYC.
CHILLING EFFECT: As Trump exacts retribution on law firms that have represented his political enemies, the world of Big Law is falling quiet and fearful, WSJ’s Erin Mulvaney and Ryan Barber report. Top partners have been unwilling to speak out publicly, and would-be plaintiffs have had more difficulty getting major law firms on board for lawsuits against the administration.
JERSEY BOYS: Ultra-progressive Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is rising in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez and Daniel Han report. Baraka has distinguished himself from the rest of the Democratic field by attacking Trump and not moving toward the center, especially on immigration. He’s well known in the state, and his progressive policy proposals have helped fuel “an unexpected surge” in polls and at county conventions.
HOT ON THE LEFT: “MeidasTouch Pops on Podcast Charts as Progressives Search for Answers,” by NYT’s Ken Bensinger and Reid Epstein: The “upstart online media company known for its relentless critiques of Mr. Trump, delivered in a blizzard of bare-bones, outrage-heavy videos, clips, podcasts and social media posts … is a leader among the numerous digital-first outlets that have been rapidly reshaping the progressive media landscape since Mr. Trump took office.”
KNOWING USHA VANCE: “From high-powered lawyer to high-profile public figure, Usha Vance settles into a new role,” by CNN’s Betsy Klein: “Usha Vance is embarking on her first major solo trip as second lady, leading the U.S. delegation to the Special Olympics World Winter Games … [T]he second lady is assembling a small team of staff, transitioning her three children to life at the Naval Observatory, and settling into the role, for which she will have her own platform and responsibilities. What those will be, however, remains a mystery. … Vance is described by people who know her as thoughtful, whip-smart and decisive. She is also extremely guarded.”
IN MEMORIAM — “Robert G. Clark, 96, Dies; Broke Race Barrier in Mississippi Statehouse,” by NYT’s Adam Nossiter: “In 1968, he became the first Black person to serve in the [Mississippi] Legislature since Reconstruction. Shunned by colleagues at first, he became a political force in the state.”
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Dilpreet Sidhu is starting as deputy mayor for international relations for Los Angeles. She previously was deputy chief of staff for the Biden NSC, and is a DOD alum.
TRANSITIONS — Tristan Justice is now a speechwriter at the Department of Transportation. He previously was a national correspondent for The Federalist. … Joe Nolan is joining Roblox’s state government affairs team. He most recently worked in government affairs for Lockheed Martin, and is a Thom Tillis alum.
ENGAGED — Joey Mott, chief of staff for Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), and Ashley Satterfield, military legislative assistant for Rep. Dale Strong (R-Ala.), got engaged Saturday. They met while working on the Hill. Pic … Another pic
Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter mistakenly included the wrong day’s birthday list. Here are the correct lists for yesterday and today.
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Reps. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) … Raj Shah of the Rockefeller Foundation … NDRC’s John Bisognano … Tiffany Muller … Andrew Rafferty … Jake Lipsett … POLITICO’s Adam Aton, Fred William and Laura Bamford … Leah Nylen … Warren Rojas … NBC’s Doug Adams … Spencer Thibodeau … Katie Schoettler … Haley Sweetland Edwards … Tom Matzzie … GM’s Reagan Payne Wicker … Harry Fones … Meta’s David Ginsberg … Bailey Mailloux … Lauren Cozzi … Ryan Diffley … Russell Drapkin … Tony Harrington … Didem Nisanci … Bianca Padró Ocasio … Sadie Weiner … David Hume Kennerly … Kimberly Guilfoyle … Charlie Gibson … Michael Kinsley … EY’s Margaret Carlson … Linnaea Honl-Stuenkel … Graham Brookie … Stefani Jones
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: CNN’s Jim Sciutto and Mike Callahan … Randy White … Jon Haber of Cascade Strategy … Bill Nichols … POLITICO’s Brad Dayspring, Chithra Subramanian, Jonathan Lai, Jordan Williams, Nicole Adams, Arek Sarkissian and Dylon Jones … Carrie Filipetti … States Newsroom’s Jane Norman … Jean Cornell … NPR’s Ron Elving … Vernon Loeb of InsideClimate News … Kevin McKeon … Alyse Nelson of Vital Voices Global Partnership … NYT’s Danny Hakim … Matt Morrison … Christie Roberts … Chris Corcoran … Matt Jessee … Alex Treadway … Cary Hatch … Urban Institute’s Olivia Dunn … CNBC’s David Faber … Bill Van Saun … Talia La Schiazza … Julie Balter … John Murray of Monument Advocacy … Adam Bodily (49) … Biz Stone
Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
A message from the American Bankers Association:
Farmers and ranchers play a critical role in ensuring America maintains its food independence and all Americans have affordable access to fresh, healthy food at their local grocery store. Congress can support our farmers and ranchers and lift up our rural communities by lowering the cost of credit for loans secured by rural or agricultural property. The Access to Credit for our Rural Economy (ACRE) Act of 2025 is a commonsense, bipartisan approach to help lower interest rates for rural borrowers. ACRE allows banks to offer lower interest rates on all loans secured by farm real estate and aquaculture facilities. ACRE would also reduce the cost of homeownership for people living in more than 17,000 thousand rural communities. Urge Congress to support our farmers and ranchers by passing the ACRE Act. Learn more here.
