Some time in the next three weeks, members of the College of Cardinals younger than 80 will enter the Sistine Chapel to elect Pope Francis‘ successor.
By the numbers: Out of the 135 cardinals eligible to vote, Pope Francis elevated 108. That means 80% of votes will be cast by cardinals who owe their position to Francis.
- 22 were selected by his conservative predecessor, Benedict XVI, and five by John Paul II.
- The conclave is also more geographically diverse. When Francis was picked in 2013, a slight majority of the voting cardinals was European. This time around, Europe comprises 39% of the body — while 17% of voting cardinals come from Asia, 15% from North America, and 13% each from South America and Africa.
Breaking it down: The question is whether those cardinals will pick a successor aligned with Francis’ modernizing worldview or perhaps coalesce around a more conservative pontiff.
- In recent history, the cardinals have often opted for continuity (such as selecting Benedict XVI to replace John Paul II). But they’ve also made more radical shifts, such as from Benedict to Francis.
- While Francis elevated some cardinals seen as fellow progressives, others may have been chosen for reasons other than ideology, like geographic diversity.
- Still, Francis diluted the voting power of the conservative wing of the church over his 12 years as pope.
The intrigue: Most popes have been Italian, and nearly all have been European. Multiple Italian cardinals — including Francis’ deputy Pietro Parolin — are seen as possible successors.
- But there are also contenders from sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia who, like Francis, would be historic firsts for their regions.
- Some analysts have noted many of the cardinals Francis elevated are based in locations far from Rome and don’t interact regularly, potentially making it harder to form coherent voting blocs.
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