BALTIMORE — The Red Sox gave Garrett Crochet a six-year, $170 million extension despite him logging only 151 innings total as a major league starting pitcher to date.
Most contracts this lucrative are given based on past production. This is different. The Red Sox are projecting what he will do in the future based on a small sample size.
“There’s always risk associated with these types of contracts,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said Tuesday via Zoom after the extension was officially announced. “I think we recognize that. At the same time we’re talking about an elite starting pitcher who’s 25 years old and someone we believe will continue to develop and whose best days are ahead of him.”
Breslow said it “depends on the perspective.”
Paying for past performance is also risky — maybe even more risky — because those pitchers have a lot of mileage on their arms.
David Price had already logged 1,441 ⅔ innings when the Red Sox signed him to a seven-year, $217 million contract. That deal began during his age 30 season.
Boston signed Chris Sale to a five-year, $145 million contract extension at 30 with 1,482 ⅓ innings already logged in the majors. Sale ended up pitching just 298 ⅓ innings with the Red Sox because of multiple injuries from 2019-23.
Crochet — at 25 and with just 224 innings overall logged in the majors between starting and relieving — has a lot less mileage on his arm. He already had Tommy John surgery in 2022. Elbow tears can recur but the Red Sox do know the ligament was repaired recently and his stuff is better than ever right now.
“We’re looking not just at what he has done but what we believe he’s going to be able to do,” Breslow said. “And when you couple the talent with just the commitment to being the best pitcher he possibly can, this is the type of bet that we are excited to make.”
Breslow said there were times during the offseason when the Red Sox felt “a deal was within sight.” He said there were other points when they felt like “it would be most productive to table talks.”
“And going into Opening Day, Garrett had talked about not wanting conversations around an extension to be a distraction,” Breslow said. “We wanted to honor that. But also felt like as an organization we needed to put our heads on our pillows at night feeling like we did everything we possibly could to keep this guy in a Red Sox uniform for as long as possible. And if that hadn’t been the case, then we needed to re-engage.
“I guess in some respects, it came together very, very quickly because we came and passed through Opening Day without a deal in place,” Breslow added. “But at the same time, so many conversations have laid the foundation for this.”
Crochet told WEEI on Friday that the two sides had gotten close before the Opening Day deadline — which obviously ended up being a soft deadline.
“It’s hard because you don’t really know how close you are until you see where things end up,” Breslow said. “And I guess, in retrospect, we were close. And I appreciate their side acknowledging that.”
Breslow said right before the season opener Thursday that the Red Sox would respect Crochet’s wishes by not talking during the regular season. But the Red Sox remained in contract with his agent. As team president Sam Kennedy told MassLive’s Fenway Rundown podcast March 24, the Red Sox previously have gotten extensions done after Opening Day deadlines, citing Clay Buchholz in 2011 and Alex Cora in 2024.
“I was thinking that there was a decent probability that we were going to need to pick up these conversations next offseason,” Breslow said. “Fortunately, I think we both recognized that there could be common ground here and it wouldn’t take a ton given all of the legwork that had been created. And so in the end, we were able to get this over the line in a way that came together pretty quickly.”
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