After experiencing a few storms in the late morning across southern North Texas, conditions have settled down over the past couple of hours. However, we expect a new round of scattered thunderstorms to develop in the coming hours across several regions, including North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and south into the Brazos Valley.
Model Discrepancies
This morning’s high-resolution rapid refresh model was somewhat inaccurate in predicting thunderstorm chances in Southeast Texas. This discrepancy may be due to the loss of upper-air weather observation data—specifically, some missing morning weather balloon data—or simply a quirk in the model. Regardless of the cause, poor data input leads to poor output!
Storm Development and Potential Hazards
We anticipate new storm development in the regions mentioned within a few hours. Once these storms form, some may intensify quickly and potentially produce large hail. The main threat from the most intense storms this afternoon and evening will be hail up to the size of baseballs. However, not all storms will produce hail, and not all hail will reach that size. Additionally, localized strong to damaging winds are possible, with gusts of up to 60 mph not out of the question. Most storms are expected to move east or northeast.
Tornado Risk Assessment
The overall tornado risk this evening is low to very low. While we cannot completely rule out a tornado, relatively weak low-level winds should keep the risk isolated. We will closely monitor the storms, and if any hazardous conditions arise, we’ll provide live severe weather coverage on our website and mobile app.
Forecast for Tonight
https://texasstormchasers.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/20250330_18ZHRRR_Texas.mp4
Thunderstorms are likely to continue into the evening, moving east or southeast across East Texas and Louisiana tonight. Some storm activity may linger into the early morning hours on Monday in Southeastern Texas and East Texas before storm chances diminish. Some of these storms tonight could still produce hail and strong wind gusts.
