Nine Democrats (and one independent aligned with them) enraged their liberal base when they broke with the majority of the party on Friday to advance the GOP’s spending bill.
It’s possible that not a single one of them will be on the ballot next year.
Of the Democratic senators who voted to move the bill forward, only three seats are up for reelection in 2026: Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). Shaheen and Peters have already announced they will retire this term. Durbin, 80, has not decided whether to run again, though many Illinois Democrats suspect he will also retire.
The other six Democrats and independent Sen. Angus King of Maine will not face voters for at least four years, giving them crucial insulation from any lingering frustration over their vote to keep the government open. Anger at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer boiled over when he announced Thursday that he would vote to advance the spending bill, giving other Democratic senators the green light to follow his lead. Some Democrats have even privately floated supporting a primary challenge against him.
Schumer and Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) are up in 2028. King and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) don’t have to run again until 2030.
Each justified their votes, with many citing the chaos that would come from a government shutdown. But the fury of the Democratic base at Schumer’s decision is raging, bringing the prospect of retribution via primary challenges to the Democratic Party in a MAGA-esque way.
With the exception of abortion rights or Israel politics, Democratic primary challenges are more often driven by calls for a new generation of leaders rather than punishment for someone who strayed from party orthodoxy.
There’s no consensus on whether backing or opposing the spending bill is the most politically optimal decision. A senator in a swing state could easily point to the vote as a sign of their pragmatism. But the more immediate risk to a senator appears to be upsetting base voters in a way that could harm their fundraising, grassroots support and, in the worst case scenario, earn them a primary challenge. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, the only Democratic senator up for reelection next year in a state President Donald Trump won, voted for the bill.
With the exception of Schumer, it’s hard to imagine Democratic primary voters remembering this moment during the 2028 primary season. The senators up next year face a larger risk.
Durbin will offer an interesting test case. The possibility of his retirement has sparked a shadow primary for his deep blue seat. The state’s lieutenant governor is quietly positioning herself as a successor, though she said she will not run if Durbin chooses to. Top Democrats in his state have already begun to express frustration.
Anne Caprara, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s chief of staff, posted on social media on Thursday: “The fight going on in the Democratic Party right now is not between hard left, left and moderate. It’s between those who want to fight and those who want to cave.”
Happy St. Patrick’s Day. Call me, beep me @allymutnick and [email protected].
Days until the 2025 election: 232
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HOUSE SPECIAL — Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is “seriously considering” a run for the late Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva’s seat, his senior adviser Steven Slugocki told the Arizona Republic’s Laura Gersony. The primary for the safe Democratic district is set for July 15. “Fontes grew up in the border town of Nogales.” One big name, Tucson Mayor Regina Romero, took herself out of contention.
Other names to watch: state Rep. Daniel Hernandez, who has run for Congress before. And “Grijalva’s daughter, Adelita, who has long been seen as a natural successor to the seat. She sits on the Pima County Board of Supervisors, a position her father held decades ago before he got elected to Congress.”
HOUSE SPECIAL, PART TWO — Isaiah Martin, a former senior adviser to the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, is launching a bid for the TX-18 special for the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s House seat in Houston. Martin is an aerospace consultant.
… Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee filed to run in TX-18. The filing came hours after “Turner’s memorial service, where the county attorney was in attendance,” per the Houston Chronicle’s Faith Bugenhagen. “Gov. Greg Abbott has not declared a special election for Turner’s seat, which will likely be held in May or, if the governor delays announcing it, in November. Texas law calls a race to be held within two months on a Tuesday or a Saturday if Abbott calls an emergency election.”
ON THE ROAD — The DNC, the DCCC and the Association of State Democratic Committees are “launching town hall meetings in Republican-held House districts across the country, ramping up the party’s efforts to put politically vulnerable GOP lawmakers on the defensive over President Donald Trump’s agenda,” the Washington Post’s Patrick Svitek reports. “It is set to start Friday in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District — home to Rep. Zach Nunn (R) — and continue in at least eight more GOP-held districts. The groups aim to hold town halls in all 50 states.”
DEMOCRATS’ PLUNGE — “The Democratic Party’s favorability rating among Americans stands at a record low, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, fueled in part by dimming views from its own frustrated supporters,” CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy reports. “With many in the party saying publicly that their leaders should do more to stand up to President Donald Trump, Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents say, 57% to 42%, that Democrats should mainly work to stop the Republican agenda, rather than working with the GOP majority to get some Democratic ideas into legislation.” The poll was conducted March 6-9, before Democrats voted to avoid a shutdown.
“Among the American public overall, the Democratic Party’s favorability rating stands at just 29% – a record low in CNN’s polling dating back to 1992 and a drop of 20 points since January 2021.”
… “The Democratic Party has reached an all-time low in popularity in the latest national NBC News poll … Just over a quarter of registered voters (27%) say they have positive views of the party, which is the party’s lowest positive rating in NBC News polling dating back to 1990. Just 7% say those views are ‘very’ positive,” per NBC News’ Bridget Bowman, Ben Kamisar and Alexandra Marquez.
“Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates … conducted the survey along with GOP pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. The slump is partially driven by fed-up Democrats, according to the polling data.”
“I don’t think we have a year to save American democracy” — Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on “Meet the Press”
