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(3) Lakers vs. (6) Timberwolves
The Lakers worked hard to earn that third seed and now that Luka Doncic has his return to Dallas completed, he can concentrate fully on being a Laker. LA lacks a quality big man with the sometimes-erratic Jaxson Hayes manning the middle. The Timberwolves have size in Rudy Gobert and two other premium defenders in Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Also, Julius Randle appears to have a definitive role after his trade from the Knicks and could be a capable scorer pairing with Anthony Edwards. LeBron James remains a top-15 player and is capable of carrying the Lakers in a few games, but the key player could be Austin Reaves, who has established himself as a reliable scorer.
Predicition: Lakers in six.
(4) Nuggets vs. (5) Clippers
The Nuggets are still reeling from the firing of coach Mike Malone and general manager Calvin Booth and now roll into the postseason against one of the league’s hottest teams. Denver has the league’s best player in Nikola Jokic but the question is the supporting cast. Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon have spent most of the season banged up and Russell Westbrook has been good at times and head-scratching in others. James Harden has transformed his game from the shoot-first, shoot-second style into a pure distributor, and Kawhi Leonard is finally healthy and playing his best basketball since his Toronto days. Ivica Zubac is a defensive player of the year candidate and a maven on the boards. The Clippers are the better overall team.
Prediction: Clippers in six.
(2) Rockets vs. (7) Warriors
This is a battle of old and young, and the older Warriors will need premium efforts from their trio of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler to overcome the hungry Rockets under coach Ime Udoka. The Rockets are tough defensively and can score but have not been in this situation. Houston’s last playoff appearance was 2020 in the NBA bubble, when some of these players were in high school. Jalen Green is ready for a playoff breakout and Alperen Sengun is a nifty interior player capable of a 30-10 double-double. The Rockets are going to be a force in coming years, but this may not be their time.
Prediction: Warriors in seven.
(4)Pacers vs. (5) Bucks
This could be the most interesting of the first-round series because these teams do not like each other. The Bucks were given a lift when Damian Lillard was cleared to return to basketball activities and Giannis Antetokounmpo made a late MVP run with some stellar games in the final month. The Pacers are capable of running any team out of the gym behind Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. The Pacers have a high-scoring offense and a defense that’s improved enough to be average. The key could be the duo of Gary Trent Jr. and Bobby Portis and whether they can help Antetokounmpo offensively. The Pacers learned from the Eastern Conference finals run last season and should be ready for this challenge.
Prediction: Bucks in seven
(3) Knicks vs. (6) Pistons
Perhaps the more compelling series because of the Pistons’ sudden prominence under coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Detroit beat the Knicks three times in the regular season, including at Madison Square Garden, so they shouldn’t be daunted by the atmosphere. But they’re going to need brilliance from All-NBA candidate Cade Cunningham and adequate help from Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley. The Knicks are stellar offensively with Karl-Anthony Towns but below average defensively with him on the floor. Towns and his ability to defend and carry the offense along with Jalen Brunson will be the key to this series. Detroit is a physical, rugged team waiting for their opportunity to shine.
Prediction: Knicks in seven
(2) Celtics vs. (7) Magic
The Magic are a big, physical team that relishes defense and limits 3-point attempts. They have had their way with the Celtics in the past few years because of their physicality. Their issue is offense. Orlando is last in the NBA in 3-point shooting and their top two players — Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner – are good in the paint but below average from the 3-point line. The Celtics can’t get frustrated with the officiating or settle offensively. But they have too many shooters and plus defenders to allow this series to become extended.
Prediction: Celtics in five
Stephen Curry hit two crucial 3-pointers in the final minutes, just like old times, to lead the Warriors to a play-in victory over the Grizzlies, setting up an intriguing first-round series with the Rockets.
It’s been a roller-coaster year in Golden State. Remember when the Warriors came to Boston and won with a 13-deep lineup in November? Yeah, that momentum didn’t last, and the club eventually felt obliged to acquire Jimmy Butler to add another scorer and shake up the roster. It has been effective although there has been slippage near season’s end.
Curry was grateful for the late resurgence and a favorable matchup with the inexperienced Rockets.
“I don’t know exactly what point in the year it was when we were below .500, and after a 12-3 start, emotional roller coaster of the season,” he said. “For us to be able to climb our way back into relevancy, and then tick off a couple opportunities to get it done within the 82, just came down to having one game where we just get a win however we could, and thankfully it happened.”
Last year, the Warriors were thumped in the play-in round by the Kings with Klay Thompson missing all 10 of his shots and going scoreless in 32 minutes. The club had to retool to return to competitiveness in the Western Conference.
“Well, it’s easy to not take it for granted because we weren’t there last year,” Curry said. “You know, from 2013 to ’19, we made, obviously the Finals runs and all that but we were in the playoffs every year; that two-year stretch where we missed it, and ’22 came around.
“I think it’s just a reminder that it’s not guaranteed. I don’t care how talented you are. You look around the league, you could argue more talented teams than we have that are on the outside looking in. So you appreciate the moments. That’s why we’ve been talking this game for the last two months, how important it is to play meaningful games. And now we have a series that’s going to be full of meaningful ones.”
The Warriors and Rockets have a history dating to the James Harden days. This new iteration of the Rockets doesn’t like the Warriors, either. Dillon Brooks and Draymond Green have been verbally warring for years, and in the team’s last meeting in San Francisco, Amen Thompson held Curry to 3 points in a masterful defensive performance.
“They are the No. 2 seed for a reason,” Curry said. “They have played well all year long. They play a certain physical style of defense, and they are super athletic. So that’s the beauty of the playoffs.
“We’re excited for the challenge. I was just telling Draymond, it’s wild. We’ve been in playoff series in Houston for a decade. It’s crazy to think about. I know this is a brand-new version of the Rockets team but we’re excited for the challenge.”
The question is whether the Warriors can rely on a 37-year-old Curry to be their primary scorer for a deep playoff run. His minutes have been reduced to 32 per game and that certainly will increase in the postseason. But he’s dealing with a tailbone injury that caused him to miss three games in March. Curry said he’s prepared for the long playoff journey.
“I don’t feel like I’m slowing down at all,” he said. “Just the maintenance and the build-up game-to-game is a little different than it used to be. But I can still get to that level that you’ve seen, night-in, night-out.” .
The Warriors may not be in this position if not for the acquisition of the controversial Jimmy Butler, who has helped Golden State to a 23-7 record in his 30 games.
“My standpoint, you have belief, and you approach every day with the goal of, especially where we started when the trade happened, to get here, like knowing how long that road was going to be; how tough it was going to be,” Curry said. “That first [Butler] game in Chicago, everything felt pretty natural and there was a smooth transition of what our team looked like post-trade, and that was a great feeling. And we just kept that rolling.
“You know, winning produces more confidence and more energy, and we’ve been riding that wave for the last two months, even when we’ve had some slip-ups. But nobody was panicking or feeling like we didn’t have what it takes to — it sounds crazy to be a seven-seed, but that seemed like a long way away two months ago.”
Cole Anthony was a projected lottery pick coming out of North Carolina, and the Magic selected him 15th overall in 2020. He has become one of the team’s emotional leaders, although his road there hasn’t been optimal.
Anthony could be considered an undersized shooting guard at 6 feet 2 inches, and it’s been difficult to find a consistent role, especially since he averaged 16.3 points per game in his second season. In the three seasons since, his minutes per game have decreased and coach Jamahl Mosley pulled Anthony from the rotation in March. He played a career-low 18 minutes per game this season but came off the bench to score a team-high 26 points in the Magic’s play-in win over the Hawks.
Anthony is a pure scorer and can carry the Magic when he’s hot. Mosley appreciates his ability to adjust from little-used reserve to valuable sixth man.
“I mean it’s been up and down for him,” Mosley said. “I mean 26 points [against Atlanta] but just his energy, his spark, his juice, what he provides for the team coming off the bench. He plays fearlessly and that’s how we need him to continue to play. It’s been up and down because there’s been moments when he was out of the rotation and then he found a way the next time down. He walks himself back in and helps us win the Miami game.
“So that’s just who he is — his resiliency, his toughness, his spark that he gives his team on the bench is just what we need.”
Anthony has accepted his demotion, but he also knows he’s capable of more responsibility and bigger things.
“[The play-in game] meant a lot,” Anthony said. “You know it was a big game and I was just happy to make the rotation. I’ll be honest. I didn’t know [Mosley] was going to rock with me but that was just awesome to be a part of. I was just happy to be out there and do something to feel like I was contributing to the team.”
Anthony said his father, who played in the NBA, told him that minutes may be hard to come by in the play-in game. Cole was prepared.
“I was having dinner with my Pops when we were in Atlanta on Saturday and he was like you might not be in that rotation and I was like, ‘What a dad!’ ” he said. “I was blessed to be able to play. It’s been an up-and-down year and I’m just extremely grateful and we’re blessed to be in the playoffs. There are several teams in this league who don’t make it.”
Despite Orlando’s topsy-turvy season, Anthony said the players, mostly lottery picks amassed over the past five years, are close. They enjoy playing with and for each other.
“We’ve got a really tight-knit team and I’ve been saying this for a while,” he said. “It’s really a vibe where the person next to you wants to see you eat as much as you want to eat. You have so many selfless dudes on one roster, it makes the game very fun. It’s an awesome thing to be a part of and I’m grateful to be in this situation.”
The Bucks received a sizable boost when All-Star point guard Damian Lillard was cleared for basketball activity after being diagnosed with a blood clot in his calf. He could return in the first-round series against the Pacers. Lillard was on blood thinners during the rehabilitation process but has been removed from thinners and could be 100 percent for a potential playoff run. Lillard missed the Bucks’ final 14 games but Milwaukee went 10-4 in his absence … Just hours after the Kings’ listless performance in the Western Conference play-in elimination game against the Mavericks, the club and general manager Monte McNair agreed to part ways. It was a difficult two years for McNair and the Kings after being a third seed in the West in 2023. Coach Mike Brown was fired earlier this season and there was confusion as to whether star guard De’Aaron Fox initiated the change. Fox went to dinner with Brown soon after he was fired and denied he had anything to do with the removal. What’s more, he apparently told McNair that Brown was the only coach he wanted to play for, then demanded a trade. He was moved to San Antonio in a deal that netted former Bull Zach LaVine, but pairing LaVine with DeMar DeRozan, like in Chicago, proved ineffective. The Kings could not get into contention to avoid the play-in, and then were embarrassed at home by the shorthanded Mavericks. Interim coach Doug Christie, who went 27-24 as Brown’s replacement, appeared as helpless as Brown at times in trying to get the Kings to defend. It’s uncertain whether he’ll return as coach, and that decision will be made by new GM Scott Perry, who briefly worked with the Kings before taking a more prominent role with the Knicks. Perry has an excellent track record of evaluating talent and will have to determine if the current roster is good enough to compete, which is a likely no. The issue is Sacramento’s top six players are signed through next season with LaVine and Domantas Sabonis earning a combined $90 million in 2025-26. Perry is likely going to have to break up the team’s core, rely on young talent, and start a mini-rebuild or the Kings will languish in the middle-of-the pick indefinitely.
Gary Washburn is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @GwashburnGlobe.
