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Stock market today: S&P 500 enters correction, Dow sinks 500 points amid Trump’s latest tariff threats
- The S&P 500 (^GSPC) narrowly entered a correction on Thursday, meaning the benchmark index has retreated 10% from its last all-time high on Feb. 19.
- But whether the S&P 500 has officially reached a technical term used to describe a drawdown is perhaps really neither here nor there. The key question of course is how often sell-offs like this keep getting worse.
- And interestingly enough, research from Carson Group chief markets strategist Ryan Detrick shows 10% corrections happen quite frequently. But they don’t often extend to a bear market, which would come if the S&P 500 fell 20% from it’s all time high.
- Detrick’s work shows that since World War II there have been 48 corrections for the S&P 500. But only 12 of those corrections have turned into bear markets, meaning 75% of the time a correction doesn’t spiral all the way down to a bear market.
- “Maybe we go into a correction, but we do not see a bear market coming,” Detrick told Yahoo Finance. “Early in the post-election year, choppiness is normal and that’s kind of what’s happening.”
- Another Wall Street bull is feeling a bit less optimistic.
- Yardeni Research cut its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target from 7,000 to 6,400 in a note to clients this week. Interestingly, the call didn’t come with a downgrade to the team’s earnings forecast. Instead, Yardeni’s team now just the S&P 500 trading at a lower valuation than initially expected.
- “We still think earnings growth is going to be good,” Yardeni Research chief markets strategist Eric Wallerstein told Yahoo Finance. “There hasn’t been a lot that’s actually fundamentally changed about the economy. It’s more so just uncertainty is weighing on multiples.”
- And to Wallerstein’s point about the fundamental story for stocks remaining intact, the chart below from SoFI head of Investment Strategy Liz Young Thomas shows what’s contributed to the recent rerating of the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio. Notably, it hasn’t come from tanking earnings expectations.
- Instead, as Young Thomas wrote on X, the recent sell-off has been “purely sentiment based so far.”
- UiPath (PATH) stock sank nearly 14% to hit an all-time low after the company forecast weaker-than-expected revenue.
- The AI software company sees revenue in a range of $330 million to $335 million, falling short of Wall Street’s expectations for nearly $370 million. For the full year, UiPath expects revenue in the range of $1.525 billion to $1.53 billion, also below Wall Street’s expectations of $1.59 billion.
- Bank of America downgraded the stock to Underperform following the company’s release.
- “Macro pressure in the Federal vertical was cited as the reason for the deceleration, though commentary suggests that pressure is more broad-based, and unlikely to abate soon,” Bank of America analyst Brad Sills wrote in a note to clients. “We have not seen macro pressure outside of the Federal vertical impact other software firms at this point, which makes us question the underlying issue.”
- Shares of several fast-casual food chains, including Chipotle (CMG), Shake Shack (SHAK), and Cava (CAVA), have tanked so far in March as tariff concerns agitate markets. And only time will tell if the stocks are oversold.
- Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi writes:
- Read more here.
- DOGE-driven cuts to federal jobs could be weighing on consumer spending in the Washington area.
- Data from Bank of America found that total credit card spending in the D.C. metro area fell 0.3% in February from a year ago. That compares with a 0.4% year-over-year increase in November, when there was no impact from extreme weather or policy changes.
- The federal government is undergoing a wave of job cuts across multiple agencies, spearheaded by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). These deep cuts have impacted the public sector, from the Department of Education to environmental regulators.
- According to Bank of America, February’s average card spending growth was slower than that of other East Coast cities, suggesting that the D.C. slowdown was likely related to DOGE cuts. Consumers cut discretionary spending, but they still spent on necessities.
- “Total card spending growth is holding up for now, indicating that the impact of the DOGE cuts has been localized so far,” Aditya Bhave, US economist at Bank of America, wrote in a note to clients. We will continue to monitor these data going forward to assess whether the drag is growing over time.”
- Yahoo Finance’s Claire Boston reports:
- Read more here.
- Selling pressure accelerated on Thursday during midday trading as the Dow (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and Nasdaq (^IXIC) sank to session lows.
- The S&P 500 fell more than 1% to inch closer toward correction territory, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%, on the heels of a rebound for both gauges. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also slipped more than 1%.
- Tech stocks led the way lower, though nearly 11 sectors of the S&P 500 fell, giving up Wednesday’s rebound gains.
- Gold touched new highs on Thursday as modest inflation data and an escalating trade war drove up prices. Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts have been raising their forecasts, with Macquarie Group now predicting a high of $3,500 in the third quarter.
- On Thursday, gold futures (GC=F) rose to climb above $2,984 per ounce.
- “Year-to-date, gold has been running ahead of our expectations,” wrote Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie on Thursday. “We are raising our gold price forecast to a 3Q25 quarter average peak of $3,150 per ounce and our single point price high to $3,500 per ounce.”
- On Wednesday strategists at BNP Paribas called for prices to push above $3,100 an ounce in the second quarter.
- “The Trump administration issuing a slew of tariff threats and the realigning of international relationships have added a new layer of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, providing a significant boost to gold,” BNP’s David Wilson wrote in a note on Wednesday.
- Read more here.
- Tariff-related concerns have sent stocks reeling over the past month, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) down about 5% year to date as of Thursday morning. Investors may want to remember that while policy shifts are unsettling, pullbacks of 5% to 10% in the benchmark index are not uncommon.
- “On average, the index experiences three drawdowns of between 5% and 10% each year,” Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note to clients. “In fact, the S&P 500 has had at least one 5% pullback in 94% of years going back to 1928 (including its predecessor S&P 90 Index).”
- Buchbinder’s advice remains clear: “Be patient, stay invested, and most importantly, don’t panic.”
- According to the note, stocks typically experience a correction of over 10% once a year, even in favorable years. With no corrections in 2024, a pullback was expected. Despite the volatility, stocks have averaged a 13% annual return since 1980.
- Buchbinder has a year-end price target for the S&P 500 in a range offrom 6,275 to 6,375, aligning with other Wall Street expectations.
- Tesla (TSLA) stock fell more than 3% on Thursday, giving back some of Wednesday’s gains following a brutal month for shares of the EV maker.
- Tesla is down more than 30% over the past month as data signaling sliding vehicle sales has weighed on shares while the brand has also been receiving some public backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in politics.
- The stock has lost all of its post-election gains after reaching an all-time high in December.
- Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports:
- Read more here.
- Stocks pulled back on Thursday as investors assessed the economic impact of an escalating trade war and the threat of a US government shutdown.
- The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.5% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped nearly 1%, on the heels of a rebound for both gauges. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also slipped 0.2%
- The market action has been volatile in recent days with stocks rebounding on Wednesday following a cooler-than-expected inflation report.
- On Thursday morning President Trump threatened the European U with a 200% tariff on imported wines, champagnes, and other alcoholic products if the bloc did not remove a duty on whiskey. The EU duties follow a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum imposed by Trump.
- Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats are planning to block a Republican spending bill to avert the weekend shutdown.
- Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer reports:
- Read more here.
- Adobe stock sank over 6% in premarket trading after the software maker’s revenue outlook for the current quarter disappointed investors.
- From Bloomberg:
- Read more here.
- Dollar General (DG) stock jumped 4.8% in premarket trading after the discount retailer reported holiday sales above estimates but a mixed outlook for the year.
- Retailers, including Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), have largely issued more cautious forecasts for the year as they navigate new tariffs and a still-inflation-weary consumer.
- For the quarter, Reuters reported that Dollar General posted annual same-store sales growth between 1.2% and 2.2%, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1.82% rise, according to data compiled by LSEG. Dollar General’s 2025 earnings per share outlook came in at $5.10 to $5.80, below analysts’ average estimate of $5.85.
- Read more here.
- Intel’s (INTC) shares are jumping in premarket after the company found a new CEO willing to take on the tough job of turning around the struggling US chipmaker.
- New boss Lip-Bu Tan is a former Intel board member who’s managed to stay under the radar while wielding significant influence in the chip industry.
- Tan is taking over Intel in the midst of one of the darkest eras in the company’s history. The chipmaker has lost its lead in process manufacturing to rival chip builder TSMC (TSM) and ceded its opportunity to dominate in the AI space to Nvidia (NVDA), Yahoo Finance’s Daniel Howley reports.
- The new CEO has already said he’ll keep working to make Intel a top foundry, making chips for others in the industry. That’s seen as signal he won’t split up its design and manufacturing businesses, as the likes of rivals TSMC and Broadcom (AVGO) eye its factories.
