A stalled series of storm systems is set to slam parts of the Mid-South and Ohio Valley through Sunday with severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and potentially “catastrophic” flooding.
Threat level: The National Weather Service is predicting a “high risk” of excessive rainfall in parts of Arkansas and Missouri on Friday, with a broader “moderate risk” area extending from northeast Texas to southern Illinois.
- The high-risk region shifts little, slightly to the north and east, on Saturday. A fire hose of moisture flowing off unusually warm waters in the Caribbean and Gulf Coast will be funneled along a cold front that is barely moving east.
- The front is blocked by a strong area of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, effectively freezing weather systems in place for days.
Zoom in: Between 2010 to 2022, high-risk days, which are uncommon, have accounted for four-fifths of all flood-related damages in the U.S., and one-third of all flood-related fatalities.
- In addition to the high risk of flooding, the likelihood exists for yet another severe weather outbreak with potentially strong tornadoes from Missouri to northeast Texas on Friday afternoon into Friday night.
- Cities designated in a “moderate risk,” or level 4 out of 5 on NOAA’s scale, include Little Rock, Jonesboro, Ark., and Longview, Texas.
Arkansas may be the hardest-hit state, designated in the high risk category for excessive rainfall two days in a row, and also in the moderate risk zone for severe weather on Friday.
- Portions of western Tennessee and southwestern Kentucky are also in line for repeated rounds of torrential rainfall and flooding.
Zoom in: Flooding overnight hit the Nashville area along with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
What they’re saying: “This setup will yield a very dangerous scenario where widespread flash flooding with considerable and potentially catastrophic impacts would be favored,” the NWS stated in an online forecast discussion.
Context: Extreme precipitation events are becoming more common and severe due to climate change, as warmer air temperatures hold more moisture.
- A new analysis from the nonprofit research group Climate Central found that heavy precipitation extremes are increasing in frequency in all regions of the country, though there is greater variability at the local levels.
- A marine heat wave in the Gulf of America (renamed by the U.S. from the Gulf of Mexico) and the Caribbean — a phenomenon increasingly tied to climate change — is also a factor, since this area will be the moisture source region for the heavy rainfall.
The extreme weather comes amid the Trump administration’s push to give states the lead role in disaster response and recovery, potentially dissolving FEMA.
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In photos: Deadly storm system slams U.S. South and Midwest
