TORONTO (AP) — Canada’s federal election was the first major test of Donald Trump ’s influence on the affairs of a longtime U.S. ally since he returned to power 100 days ago. And he lost it badly.
The U.S. president’s attacks on Canadian sovereignty outraged voters while the trade war he launched threatened to upend the economy of a nation dependent on U.S trade. That reversed the fortunes of the Liberals, who had been expected to be shown the door by an electorate weary of their decade in power, but instead cast themselves as fighting for Canada’s very existence.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who shares some similarities with Trump style-wise, appeared months ago to be a shoo-in to become Canada’s next prime minister. Now, he is out of his own seat in Parliament.
The Liberal victory on Monday energized other American allies under pressure from Trump and newly empowered Prime Minister Mark Carney, who emerges with a new mandate to take a tough line against the U.S. in trade negotiations and other foreign policy.
French President Emmanuel Macron — who has his own complex relationship with Trump and is dealing with tariffs imposed on France — congratulated Carney on X and referenced the “elbows up” slogan that Canadians have adopted in resistance to Trump.
“You embody a strong Canada in the face of today’s challenges,” he wrote. “France is glad to further strengthen the friendship which unites our two countries. I’m looking forward to working with you — ‘elbow to elbow!’”
Trump was on the ballot in all but name
While Canadian voters worried about the cost of living, about crime and other issues, the election become a referendum on Trump in a land where he is deeply unpopular.
Trump’s annexation threats and trade war have upended Canada’s identity in ways few Americans understand. The attacks are viewed as not only deeply insulting, but a stinging betrayal by what was supposed to be the country’s closest friend and trading partner.
They have sparked a wave of nationalism typically foreign to a country that is better known for apologizing than flag waving.
Coffee shops replaced Americanos with “Canadianos.” Provincial liquor stores cleared American wines and spirits from their shelves. Canadians canceled trips south of the border, began boycotting American products, and booed the U.S. national anthem when it played at sports games.
Even Wayne Gretzky, Canada’s biggest hockey hero, is now reviled over his personal friendship with Trump.
Trump in March acknowledged that he was boosting the Liberals’ fortunes, but continued with his attacks nonetheless.
“I don’t care,” he repeated during in an interview on Fox News Channel’s “The Ingraham Angle.” “I’d rather deal with a Liberal than a Conservative.
Trump also criticized Poilievre’s efforts to distance himself from the president.
“The conservative that’s running is, stupidly, no friend of mine. I don’t know him, but he said negative things,” he said, insisting the outcome “doesn’t matter to me at all.”
Poilievre rebuffed Trump’s support — but too late
Some Trump allies have suggested that Poilievre should have run on uniting the U.S. and Canada, embracing Trump instead of criticizing him.
Instead, his efforts to distance himself were seen as coming too late.
Trump took to Truth to seemingly endorse himself as voting was underway.
“Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America,” he wrote. “No more artificially drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be.”
That led to a rebuke from Poilievre.
“President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box,” the Conservative leader wrote on X Monday morning. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”
Trudeau went silent, depriving Conservatives of a key foil
Liberals had been down 25 points — at risk of losing party status — when the then president-elect began to taunt former Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him the “governor” of the “Great State of Canada,” and threatening to make Canada the 51st State.
But Trump lost his foil when Trudeau stepped down, as did Conservatives. Trudeau stayed out of the spotlight after stepping down, in line with Canadian tradition.
But the war of words with Trump also benefitted the former prime minister, who was able to spend his final days in office defending the country’s sovereignty and embracing its newfound nationalism.
After Canada beat the U.S. in a hockey match, Trudeau declared on X: “You can’t take our country — and you can’t take our game.”
Other countries have faced Trump threats
Canada isn’t the only election where Trump’s threats have been a backdrop.
Greenland, which Trump has threatened to take over — perhaps with military force — held an election last month in which Jens-Frederik Nielsen’s Demokraatit, a pro-business party that favors a slow path to independence from Denmark, won a surprise victory.
While Nielsen has rejected Trump’s threats to take control of the Island, that campaign focused more on issues like healthcare and education than on geopolitics.
Vice President JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk both embraced the German far-right Alternative for Germany party, which lost a February general election, but nonetheless doubled its support, marking the strongest showing for a far-right part since World War II.
Trump’s support is also seen as a boon in other countries. Conservative figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Argentina’s Javier Milei and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, see him as someone they want on his side.
Trump said he doesn’t care about the results
In Canada, leaders marveled at Trump doing so much to benefit a leaders who talk tough against him.
“In the White House, they should sit down and think about the effect Trump has in the world,” said former Quebec Premier Jean Charest. “They will have created this and I’m not sure that’s what they had in mind. But that is what happened. What does this mean for them as they try maneuver themselves around the world politically is an interesting question.”
“At what point are the Trump folks going to think this thing through and measure what are the consequences,” asked Charest, the former premier of Quebec.
The answer to Charest’s question is not now.
Trump acknowledged the role he had played in the election interview published Monday.
“You know, until I came along, remember that the conservative was leading by 25 points,” he told The Atlantic. “Then I was disliked by enough of the Canadians that I’ve thrown the election into a close call, right? I don’t even know if it’s a close call.”
The State Department on Tuesday congratulated Carney, as is custom among allies. But the White House issued a statement again referencing Trump’s talk of annexing Canada.
Said spokeswoman Anna Kelly: “The election does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state.”
