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• 00:00You’re an analyst. What you do? I mean, 25 years covering tech and market. It’s the most absurd 36 hours that I’ve ever seen, because my view is that this is an economic Armageddon if these tariffs come through. And I think from a tech perspective, firms are probably one of the biggest assets we have in this country. It would take us back potentially a decade and it would steamroll China ahead. And that’s why our whole point right here, even if tariffs if you got a deal in a month or two, you’re already looking at 5 to 10% earnings cuts across the board in tech just to start. And I think that’s really the worry right now as a tech investor, Apple American, I come and for that reason, nobody believes this is going to happen. They’re looking for exemptions. They report in a month at the very start of May. How do they offer any guidance at all? I mean, we’ve said we don’t believe Apple actually, basically any other tech company gives guidance because you’re essentially blindfolded playing darts, giving guidance. And it comes down to if you wanted to implode apple and you wanted to actually try to figure out the formula to actually make this company, would I really view it could take them back years. It’s this tower because it comes down to 54% from China. It would take three years and $20 billion to take even 10% of the supply chain to the U.S. If you want 3500 our iPhones, we should build them in New Jersey, which build them in Texas. You 8000 hour iPhones, you build them in China. And I think that fundamentally is really the issue here in terms the near-term pain would be five, seven, eight. It would change. Apple is a company, which is the reason why a lot of people don’t believe that this is actually going to come through, even if there is some kind of negotiation. How much damage do you think is being done just simply through the uncertainty? You’re burning the house down, but then you still have a toaster oven, the bagels ready. The point is that the damage that’s being done here and I’ve talked to so many tech executives over the last 48 hours and and they don’t know. And the worry is the uncertainty, the inventory. What does this mean about, you know, all the conversations we’ve had over the years, a I revolution, in my opinion, fourth industrial revolution, where we are in tech overall markets. And this essentially it’s imploding, it self-inflicted. And I think that’s really the frightening thing for investors in terms of where we sit here and what the next steps are. Yesterday, the Magnificent Seven lost more than ,000,000,000,000 in market valuation. That’s the first time that’s ever happened in one day for these stocks, down 24% from the December peak. Do you think that there is potentially as a bull is a perennial bull in the US tech sector, Do you think there’s actually more downside ahead simply because this uncertainty isn’t going to go away? I mean, look, this uncertainty in itself, it’s already taken numbers down and it becomes so fill in prophecy. Now, in terms of the long term mag, seven hour view of tech, of course, that continues to be very bullish over the long term. But right now, I mean, this this is we are sitting on the precipice of an economic Armageddon. And it doesn’t matter what you say in the Beltway in front of microphones. And the reality is talk to executives, see what’s actually happening. And I think that right now is where tech stocks are reflecting investors. There are Republican and Democrat. They’re speaking in terms of what stocks are telling you. And this is we are in the midst of like just a mass of what I believe is economic Armageddon if this continues. So, Dan, Apple, you’ve got an outperform, Tesla, you’ve got an outperform, Microsoft, you’ve got an outperform. You also have a GM. You’ve got an outperform. When are you going to revise these calls? So it comes down to like if if to if the tariffs stick and they continue for the weeks, months ahead, then we have to change our whole hour. Can you help me understand that just a little bit more? Yeah. So these are the dates, April 5th, tomorrow, baseline tariffs, 10% kick in April 9th. Next week, the additional tariffs kick in. How long do you wait? So let’s walk through and this is where I’ve been talking to investors around the globe the last 48 hours. Okay. To Q is going to be a disaster and it’s already facts. So that’s them, right? So two sets of two Q is already like blindfolded darts. What it’s going to be three. Q So you basically have to work in the next 3 to 6 months? BE I wouldn’t call them a wash, but basically the street’s going to look through, okay, what do numbers look like, run rate if these tariffs get to some sort of baseline Q4 2026. So you basically go back to the playbook that we’ve used in Covid and as early as March, June, you know, in terms of COVID playbooks, looking out normalize, assuming that this in some way gets negotiated, but it comes down to if these tariffs stay all bets off because it changes the whole paradigm. Do you expect, though, to see that kind of upside, the outperformance anytime in the near future? Or are you basically saying that at this point you’re not getting that kind of capitulation? So if you have faith that the next ten years fabulous, you might get a good entry point, but otherwise not really worth getting in? Look, in the near term, a lot of it, unfortunately, it’s based on what we see with negotiations. If they happen, what happens with China? Tick tock. Is that one of the first chips on the table? The reality is, is that the growth story in terms of where we see TAC over the next call it nine, 12, 18, 12. That doesn’t change here. But the reality is that if they if this continues, the longer it stays, it you get once the snowball starts going downhill, you can’t stop it. Elon Musk, I want to just talk to you a little bit about Tesla and what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. We have heard from President Trump yesterday that he expects and he would like Elon Musk to stay on with the Doge effort for a prolonged period of time, but that he will be going back to his company maybe in a period of months. Does that help insulate Tesla or is Tesla uniquely vulnerable because of Elon Musk’s relationship with this administration every day? Musk These are doge. And the government. It’s another day that there is more brand destruction for for Tesla. And that’s just the Tesla’s become a political symbol. So we’ve talked about is that Musk, in our view, really has no choice. He has to take a step back, back to CEO of Tesla because look at the one key delivery numbers. Look, it just even if you are from brand issues, that crisis continues. I think the long term should view in the long term brand of Tesla change. And that continues to be, you know, how we view it’s a fork in the road. It’s a moment for Musk. He needs to make the right decision as a fiduciary and CEO of Tesla got another cut two estimates this morning this time from Jp morgan. On Tesla first quarter vehicle sales were far below even their estimates and quote, confirmed the unprecedented brand damage we had earlier Fed And we saw these anecdotes about European sales. We saw anecdotes about Canada. This is coming to pass at a time when he is expected to go back. But it’s unclear whether that can really revive a brand, especially at a time of increasing competition from China. And that, I think, is Dan Ives. Other point that I think is really, Dan, just before you go on China and TikTok, I saw you smiling as Lisa and I were talking about the potential deal. Who are they negotiating with? I mean, themselves. I mean, it just comes down to like, okay, is it Oracle? Alison PE Look, my whole view there is that it’s a chip on the table. Bytedance keeps the algorithm. There is some sort of combination, you know, in terms of who ultimately sells, but I just view it as it’s part of a broader negotiation. But again, when if I’m negotiating with myself in my room, what does that do? It comes down to what does Beijing say?