For now neither side looks willing to step back. In both countries, there is a lack of leadership with the strength and confidence to compromise.
In Prime Minister Hun Manet, Cambodia has the inexperienced son of a former strongman who does not yet have his own authority, while in his father Hun Sen it also has a man who appears willing to push this conflict further in order to burnish his own nationalist credentials.
On the Thai side, the shaky coalition government centred on Thaksin’s party is dealing with a stagnant economy and reeling from the threat of punitive US tariffs. It cannot afford to show weakness in standing up to Cambodia.
Cambodia too is dealing with a struggling economy.
It never fully recovered from the pandemic and tourism – a pillar of its economy – has suffered from the absence of Chinese visitors staying away for fear of being kidnapped and forced to work in scam centres.
And – as with Thailand – now there is the threat of punishing US tariffs impacting the economy further.
But both countries do have experienced politicians in Hun Sen and Thaksin who almost certainly can, when they are both ready, find a way out of this.
We will also have to see whether other members of Asean weigh in on this conflict and try to persuade both countries to de-escalate.
That was originally Asean’s primary purpose – to avoid conflict among its members – and it will be a priority for some of the Asean states at the moment to help these two countries resolve the conflict.
What remains a mystery at this point though is why Hun Sen decided to burn this friendship and inflame this conflict.
Perhaps it was Thailand’s decision to put pressure on scam centres this year, or Thaksin’s ambition to legalize gambling, threatening Cambodia’s own lucrative casino industry.
Or perhaps it was something simpler: a Machiavellian move by one of Asia’s wiliest political survivors, to abandon an ally in Thaksin who has lost much of his influence in Thailand, while at the same time burnishing his nationalist credentials in the eyes of his own people.
