Can Anthony Davis do the impossible? Is Jonathan Kuminga being phased out? And have the Grizzlies unlocked Zach Edey? We examine one player from each team.
With 82 regular-season games officially in the books, the NBA’s play-in tournament is finally here. To tip things off, here’s a look at one pivotal player from each of the eight teams vying for a playoff berth. From superstars who have something to prove, to overlooked role players, to rookies who finally have a chance to get their feet wet in a truly meaningful context, all eight players covered here will enter the tournament facing some kind of existential question. Luckily for us, the play-in offers a convenient opportunity to answer them.
I was so close to writing about Brandin Podziemski here. Then two critical things happened in Golden State’s (incredibly entertaining) season finale: 35-year-old, oft-injured Jimmy Butler hurt his leg in the closing moments, and, more important, Steve Kerr benched Jonathan Kuminga for the entire game. Podz is still a fascinating and hugely valuable guard, but it felt silly not to cover the elephant in the room.
He’s a restricted free agent this summer, so Kuminga’s long-term status with the only team he’s ever played for is more fragile than ever, and his on-court fit has never felt more incongruous with their style of play or what Kerr most values beside Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. It’s tension colliding with opportunity: Kuminga’s fresh legs now, seemingly, are a booster shot for Golden State’s aging core. At the same time, Kerr clearly doesn’t trust him or think he can fit into a tried-and-true offensive system that melts with impatience or too many poor outside shooters.
In 15 games since he returned from a sprained ankle, Kuminga is 6-for-35 from behind the arc. Kuminga’s DNP-CD should not have shocked anyone who’s listened to Kerr speak or paid attention to the lineups he’s played.
“There’s no doubt that as soon as Jimmy arrived and we started winning, we leaned into lineup combinations that enhanced Jimmy because we were winning. Jonathan was out for that whole stretch. We went like 17-3 or something, so we’re gonna keep doing what’s been winning,” Kerr said last week. “But the lineup with Jimmy, Jonathan, and Draymond doesn’t fit real well, frankly. We need more spacing. We’ve found other lineups that have clicked, and that’s just part of the deal being in the NBA.”
Green, Butler, and Kuminga have shared the floor for 36 terrible minutes this season. In Butler’s 97 minutes beside Kuminga, Jimmy’s true shooting is 11.4 percentage points lower than when the two are split up. Butler’s turnovers have also increased, his points per possession have decreased, and his field goal percentage at the rim goes from 68.1 percent to 37.5 percent. Yikes.
If you can’t play next to Draymond and Jimmy, you probably won’t see meaningful minutes. And since both of those guys are under contract for the next two seasons, it would only make sense to glean that Kuminga’s days in Golden State are probably numbered.
All hope for a redemptive arc is not lost, though. After the Warriors’ loss to the Clippers on Sunday, Kerr said that Kuminga’s benching did not mean he was out of the rotation going forward. He can still be spectacular against the Grizzlies on Tuesday or provide the athletic juice that Golden State is sometimes desperate for in a potential matchup against either the Houston Rockets or Oklahoma City Thunder. But if Butler is healthy enough to go 40 minutes, I wouldn’t count on it.
Zach LaVine has appeared in more All-Star games than playoff series, a statement of fact that reflects how confusing his seductive talents can be. Since he was shipped to the Kings before the trade deadline, LaVine’s shooting numbers have been remarkably consistent with the dragon fire he exhaled earlier this year with the Chicago Bulls: 22 points per game on 51.1/44.6/87.4 splits. For the season, he also finished 1 percentage point behind Seth Curry in 3-point percentage, which is obviously not nothing.
But the mistakes are too numerous and detrimental to ignore. LaVine record scratches possessions, trots back on defense when a dead sprint is called for, and rarely makes life easier for everyone around him. His career is a testament to the fine line that separates “talent” from “good.” He’s a very skilled player who tends to present himself less as the driving force behind wins and more as a self-neutralizing passenger who’s merely along for the ride.
The good news for Sacramento is that, in a single-game elimination format, LaVine’s tendency to get hot may be the only thing that matters. Few players have a prettier jump shot, and even fewer can create enough space to jack one up from behind the 3-point line whenever they want.
The bad news for Sacramento is the lack of evidence that its three highest-paid players can succeed at the same time. (All three are under contract for the next two seasons, too.) When LaVine shares the court with DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis, the Kings have a wretched defense that allows a whopping 7.4 more points per 100 possessions than the league average. Bad, bad, bad.
There’s a real addition by subtraction corollary in play now that Malik Monk is reportedly unavailable for at least the next two weeks, though. LaVine’s awkward fit may be more tenable within a game plan that needs him to do what he does best, and there have been times over the past few weeks when the overlap between him, Monk, and DeRozan complicated a crunch-time offense that should have shined.
But even if the Kings somehow beat the Mavericks on Wednesday and then somehow win a second play-in game that affords them the right to be served as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s breakfast, LaVine’s presence—financially and on the court–is likely to put a cap on what is possible for the foreseeable future.
The most interesting basketball subplot from Luka Doncic’s big return to Dallas last Wednesday was how the Lakers guarded Anthony Davis when the Mavericks were big and, from there, the concessions Los Angeles forced Jason Kidd to make.
In general, the game emphasized how important spacing is around a big like AD and how little of it Dallas is able to create when he’s on the floor. Pretty much every time Davis set a ball screen, the Lakers were happy to switch it, front him in the post, and use whoever was guarding either Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II to help on the backside. The strategy worked wonders. AD wants to play power forward. It’s a curious, long-lasting desire that goes back to his New Orleans days and doesn’t jibe with modern basketball, nullify his own shortcomings, or accentuate everything that makes him such a two-way monster.
We’re working with a very small sample size—AD has appeared in only nine games and played just three with Lively and Gafford—and not every team is comfortable spending so much time without a traditional center on the floor, like the Lakers are. But … man. Without someone like Kyrie Irving operating in the cracks of a clogged floor, Dallas’s spacing issues are comically pronounced when they simultaneously play two bigs who don’t, can’t, or shouldn’t shoot jumpers.
The surrounding pieces simply weren’t brought in to support this type of offense. Klay Thompson is now vital at all times, PJ Washington has to resemble the guy who torched OKC in last year’s playoffs, and an untenable burden falls on Spencer Dinwiddie’s shoulders. Sans Irving, the Mavericks don’t really have a shot creator who can reliably drill 3-pointers and dissuade help rotations. Max Christie and Caleb Martin are perfectly fine in the right roles, but they aren’t able to put off-the-bounce pressure on a defense that’s loading up elsewhere.
There are benefits to playing two bigs at the same time. Rebounding is a general plus, and Davis has enough ball skills to occasionally make something happen off an inverted screen or run a 4-5 pick-and-roll:
In AD’s lone, four-minute stint alongside Gafford at the start of the fourth quarter, we witnessed a nice high-low assist that turned the Lakers’ aggression against them:
That last sequence came during Kidd’s on-air interview with ESPN’s Lisa Salters, in which, among other things, he said the obvious: “We’ve gotta be better with our spacing.” For the postseason, starting Davis at power forward may require a dramatic minutes reduction for either Lively or (more likely) Gafford. It’s no fait accompli that one will be traded this summer, but the issues that these double-big lineups create on both ends won’t be magically solved before Irving is healthy, which isn’t likely to happen before 2026.
In a Mavericks jersey, Davis has taken 30 3s and made only five of them; his 2-point shots are a coin flip. He’s not moving particularly well, either, which brings us to the question of whether any of this is worth it. It’s admirable that Davis wants to suit up for the homestretch and push Dallas into a potential playoff series. But a near quadruple-double against the Toronto Raptors aside, very few players could salvage a situation this hopeless. If AD fails in the play-in, blame Dallas’s structural dilemmas instead of the man doing everything he can to cover up for them.
Since the Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins and tabbed Tuomas Iisalo to be their interim head coach, Zach Edey’s involvement in the offense has been streamlined in a notable way: According to Sportradar, the number of ball screens he sets per game has more than doubled.
In his first eight games under Iisalo, Edey averaged 17.6 ball screens. In the previous 58, he’d set 7.2. Not that Jenkins’s offense was unproductive, but Edey’s a humongous person who enjoys contact, and this modification is definitely to Ja Morant’s and Desmond Bane’s benefit. The picks come in different situations and are set at varying depths and angles, with the common denominator being it’s really hard to get around one of the largest humans who’s ever played professional basketball:
Not included in these numbers, but apparent when you watch Memphis play, are the off-ball screens Edey will set for a teammate that then spring them downhill with the same functional effect that a pick-and-roll tends to have—except the defense isn’t set to stop Edey’s dive:
Placating Morant and Bane is enough to justify the abrupt change, but critically, Edey’s ball screens are also highly effective thanks to some of the improved space he and the ball handler now have around the perimeter. Jaren Jackson Jr. has earned the respect of defenders, who now need to worry about his spot-up 3-ball, and Santi Aldama also gets them up at a high volume.
There’s a good chance that Morant and Bane will see more aggressive coverage when they come off Edey’s screens against Golden State’s defense, which will be happy if Memphis’s rookie big man has to make pivotal decisions in the short roll. But we’ve already seen one counter, with Memphis shorting the pick-and-roll as a way to make Edey more of an exclamation point:
Granted, the clip above comes against a defense that, to be polite, won’t be as lifeless in the play-in, but the greater takeaway here is that it’s smart to have your franchise center complement your franchise players without exposing them to their own potential weaknesses.
Defensively, Edey is still a work in progress with less margin for error than a 7-foot-3 mountain should probably have. He fouls a ton and isn’t particularly quick in open space or even when reacting within tight spots. The most intimidating rim protectors are able to put out two fires on the same play, but right now Edey is typically limited to one:
That’s not all his fault, but it is something to keep an eye on in games that carry this much weight. Win, and your “reward” is the Houston Rockets. Lose, and your season will end either on Friday or after a torturous series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The dominant narrative around KCP’s first season with the Magic is that the Denver Nuggets should be relieved about letting him walk in free agency. Yes, the 32-year-old’s scoring average (8.7 points per game) hasn’t been this low since he was a rookie, and he did indeed go into the All-Star break shooting just 30.9 percent behind the 3-point line in an offense that wasn’t anything to write home about.
But I kinda feel like these critiques lack context and are unfairly tied to the three-year, $66 million contract Orlando gave him in July, as well as the fact that his replacement in Denver (Christian Braun) is having a breakout season. As a role player signed to complement Orlando’s ascending core, KCP played a grand total of just 84 minutes beside Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Jalen Suggs this season—conditions that don’t allow for too much practical judgment. KCP has always been more effective when cast in a bit part, dependably backing established star power. That didn’t happen as often as the Magic hoped it would.
But he still led them in total minutes, saw his field goal percentage at the rim and midrange reach career-high marks, and was a consistent contributor in some of the stingiest defensive lineups in the league.
Since Wagner and Banchero both returned to the starting lineup on January 23, KCP has also made nearly 40 percent of his 3s and had a 62.3 true shooting percentage. TL;DR: KCP is plenty reliable when operating in the role he was intended to fill. If you’ve somehow held on this long, don’t sell your Magic stock just yet!
Here are Okongwu’s numbers since he replaced Clint Capela in Atlanta’s starting lineup back on January 20: 15.0 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, while hitting 41.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s and getting one of the highest true shooting percentages in the league. Pretty solid! His pick-and-roll (a.k.a. slip-and-roll) chemistry with Trae Young is a swift way to create favorable switches, hesitations, and open runways to the rim:
It’s a lot harder to blitz Young and put two on the ball when no screen is actually set—hence all the slips—but if Okongwu does make contact and becomes the release valve with a four-on-three advantage, he can make a fast read and either kick out to a corner 3 shooter or hit a short floater on his own. He’s also so good at finding cutters from the high post—since he became a full-time starter, Okongwu has had the 11th-most elbow touches in the league—which is such an important quality in an offense that’s constantly searching for the means to diversify its attack.
With Capela about to become an unrestricted free agent, the 24-year-old Okongwu is an interesting building block for the Hawks, who are hoping that their rebuild will be transitory. Internal development from heavy-minutes contributors like Okongwu will ultimately decide whether it can be.
The drop-off from Jimmy Butler to Andrew Wiggins would be a shock to any team’s system: a cerebral, fearless overachiever who loves big moments and all the attention that comes with them versus one of the most frustrating and complacent talents of his generation.
At his best, Wiggins makes snappy, aggressive decisions with the intent to score. He deploys athleticism on the glass, confidently drills stepback midrange jumpers, attacks closeouts, and has a positive defensive impact on and off the ball.
A couple of weeks ago, Wiggins submitted an exemplary 30-point performance against the Rockets that, for one night, made the Heat feel OK about the super sad compromise Butler forced them to make at the trade deadline. But just a couple of games later, the flip side revealed itself: Nobody parodies the archetype of a bouncy 6-foot-7 two-way star like Wiggins, who needed 13 shots to score 10 points against his former team.
Outside the lens of unfairly comparing Wiggins to the future Hall of Famer he replaced, there’s a simple side to his skill set that can work to his benefit. He’s mostly plug-and-play and can knock down spot-up 3s, run an occasional pick-and-roll, post up a mismatch, or provide some pop from areas of the floor that Miami will need to access against defenses that take away the paint and don’t care about all the Bam Adebayo 3s that are suddenly going in.
But the Warriors offense he spent more than 300 games functioning in is a little less sticky than what he’s in now. Wiggins’s set of responsibilities hasn’t made some dramatic shift, but their importance kind of has. That’s a problem. Not to be oxymoronic, but Wiggins is one of the more anonymous known commodities in the NBA—to the point that I actually forgot he was on the Heat before I sat down to watch a recent loss to the Chicago Bulls. At his worst, Wiggins can be strip-mined of individuality, a bland patch of wallpaper in a room that lacks pizzazz.
The play-in tournament is not necessarily a chance for him to rehabilitate how he’s perceived or reverse the Sisyphean journey all former no. 1 picks who don’t set the world on fire find themselves on. If Wiggins can stand out on a national stage, it will feel like a revelation. And, for better or worse, that’s exactly what the Heat could use right now.
No one should be surprised by how fun and good the Bulls have become since they traded Zach LaVine to a Kings organization that had seemingly shed its haplessness before LaVine was acquired. Then, Sacramento immediately fell off a cliff.
Once everyone in Chicago had a couple of weeks to alter their existing roles and absorb incoming pieces, the Bulls began to embody a faster, more selfless style of play that better accommodated Josh Giddey—someone who can fairly be described as the team’s new franchise player. Since LaVine was dealt, Giddey’s involvement in Chicago’s offense skyrocketed, along with pretty much every counting stat and shooting split.
Maybe his March was a kind of max contract cosplay. Or maybe we just happened to witness the grand reveal of a funky, singular force who came into his own on a team that’s enabled everything that makes him so unique. That’s the very expensive question Chicago has to answer when it offers Giddey, a restricted free agent, his next contract this summer. The play-in could very well go a long way toward determining what type of commitment is made. If he is the best player on the court in a road win over the Miami Heat and then mows through either the Atlanta Hawks or Orlando Magic in another impressive showing Friday night—doing most of what OKC didn’t believe he could when they traded him for Alex Caruso—Chicago may see its negotiating leverage evaporate.
On the court, though, the Bulls will have some semblance of a constructive direction to follow. When you imagine a version of Giddey who combines all that brilliant vision and positional size with the ability to hit spot-up 3s and open elbow jumpers off the bounce, it’s not that far from the star Arturas Karnišovas thinks he can be.
Michael Pina is a senior staff writer at The Ringer who covers the NBA.
