If you had asked Mets fans at 4:09pm ET on Opening Day what the team’s strength would be in 2025, the answer would’ve universally been their lineup. While there are still 159 games to prove them right, over the first three games of the season, the Mets scored just five runs , dropping the first series 2-1 to the Houston Astros. Just five extra base hits in three games is not a great way to kick off a season, especially when your lineup has a top five that would be the envy of all non-Dodgers teams in baseball.

In the Mets’ defense, the starting pitching they saw from the Astros was quite good. And, in a pleasant bit of news, the Mets’ rotation, specifically the three least known quantities, mostly performed well. Clay Holmes was shaky on Opening Day, but it is too early to tell if that was simply nerves or a sign of things to come.

Tylor Megill looked quite good on Friday night, giving up just three hits and one walk to a potent Astros lineup. Griffin Canning did well in his first start as well, with some bullpen management potentially being at fault for his taking the loss in the game. Why Carlos Mendoza chose not to use one of his two lefties in the bullpen to face the only left-handed threat in the Houston lineup with a man on and Canning tiring is anyone’s guess, but a one-run deficit shouldn’t have been insurmountable either way.

The good news for the Mets is that they are heading to Miami to face a team that is predicted to be truly awful in 2025. The bad news for the Mets is that the Marlins are 3-1 and they’re going to face their ace in the second game of the series.

Of course, not all wins are the same. The Marlins walked off all three of their victories against the Pirates over the opening series, which seems like a record of some sort, and probably says more about the state of the Pittsburgh bullpen than anything else, especially as one of them was a walk-off on a wild pitch. But still, the Marlins held their own over the weekend, including putting up two runs off of Paul Skenes, so they can’t be totally dismissed.

The Marlins’ lineup is one that no one would blame the average baseball fan for knowing not a single player in it. Only one player on their roster has more than 500 career plate appearances, and he doesn’t have 600. This is a very young club, and one that doesn’t have enough of a track record to project in ways that really are of any value, except to say that they probably won’t be at the top of the offensive leaderboards at the end of the season.

That said, a team this young always plays hard and has something to prove, so they won’t be a pushover team.

For the Mets, the answer is clear: they need to hit. Juan Soto hit a moonshot of a home run on Saturday night and a double on Sunday, so he’s clearly not the issue here. But the rest of the top five of the Mets’ lineup collectively had three hits over the Astros series, and had lots of opportunities with men on base but squandered them. The Mets were 2 for 21 with runners in scoring position over the series, and both of those came in their 3-1 victory on Saturday night.

Monday, March 31: David Peterson vs. Cal Quantrill, 6:40pm on SNY

Peterson (2024): 121.0 IP, 101 K, 46 BB, 8 HR, 2.90 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 73 ERA-

Last season was a revelation for Peterson, who had been a fringy, frustrating piece of the Mets’ rotation off and on since 2020. But last year, free of his hip issues, Peterson looked like the pitcher that had always been promised. Adept at limiting bad innings for the first time in his career and walking fewer batters, Peterson looked to put it all together. Here’s hoping those changes stick into 2025.

Quantrill (2024): 148.1 IP, 110 K, 69 BB, 23 HR, 4.98 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 107 ERA-

Cal Quantrill had a really great 2021 season for Cleveland, his first full season with the club. 2022 was also a good year, and began to build anticipation for the type of player that Quantrill was blossoming into. But in 2023, the bloom came off Quantrill, and after the season he was DFA’d and traded for a minor league catcher to the Rockies. 2024 was a better season, but is never a good sign when you’re free agent contract is for almost half your prior season’s arbitration salary.

Tuesday, April 1: Kodai Senga vs. Sandy Alcantara, 6:40pm on SNY

Senga (2024): 5.1 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 HR, 3.38 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 85 ERA-

Last year was a lost one for Senga, who missed the first three months of the season, appeared in exactly one game before getting injured again and missing the rest of the regular season. His playoff performance is best not spoken about, so let’s just say that the Mets need Senga to get off to a strong start, reminiscent of his fantastic 2023 performance, to help fans and front office staff feel better about his season.

Alcantara (2025): 4.2 IP, 7 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, 3.86 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 92 ERA-

Sandy Alcantara won the Cy Young in 2022, and then had a down year in ‘23 and lost all of ‘24 to Tommy John Surgery. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising if Alcantara reaches his old heights in 2025, or if he comes back a lesser version of his past glory.

Wednesday, April 2: Clay Holmes vs. Connor Gillispie, 6:40pm on SNY

Holmes (2025): 4.2 IP, 4 K, 4 BB, 0 HR, 3.86 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 98 ERA-

Clay Holmes’s first start in almost seven years did not go as he’d have hoped. As mentioned above, it is hard to tell if that is because his nerves got the better of him, he had some sort of physical limitation, or if the Astros just had his number that day. Regardless, he should have an easier task ahead of him with the Marlins’ lineup, and hopefully can flash some of the brilliance he showed in spring training.

Gillispie (2024): 5.0 IP, 4 K, 4 BB, 1 HR, 5.40 ERA, 6.11 FIP, 129 ERA-

Connor Gillispie made the Marlins rotation due to injuries, and took the L in his first career start over the weekend. He made three appearances out of the Guardians’ bullpen in 2024, and has worked both as a starter and reliever for the entirety of his minor league career.

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