A baseball season consists of 30 different soap operas, each lasting six months. Twelve of the clubs get to extend their runs for as long as another month. Only one ends in true happiness.
The twists and turns for each team hinge on injuries, trades and fluctuations in performance, making the sport impossible to predict. Which is the beauty of it, the reason every season is so compelling. Baseball is many things. Rarely is it boring.
Here are my top 12 storylines for 2025, concluding with my 39th Annual Dumb World Series Prediction™. Yes, I’ve been doing this that long. You’d think by now I would be getting smarter. But baseball makes glorious fools of us all.
The Dodgers: Dynasty or not?
If ever there were a team positioned to win consecutive World Series for the first time since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998 to 2000, it’s this one. But ask manager Dave Roberts what it will take for the Los Angeles Dodgers to go back-to-back, and he responds, “We have to get to the second round.”
Roberts’ comment should not be considered presumptuous, not when his team is coming off its 12th straight postseason appearance. His point also is well-taken: The Dodgers lost in the best-of-five Division Series in 2022, ’23 and nearly again in ’24. Their depth, which is at an almost unfathomable level this season, makes them more difficult to beat in the best-of-seven LCS and World Series.
Still, even the Dodgers face questions: What will Shohei Ohtani contribute as a pitcher? How will Mookie Betts fare at shortstop? Will the starting pitchers, for a change, stay mostly healthy? And if so, can the Dodgers find enough innings for all of them?
The regular season might not be the romp so many of us anticipate. The Arizona Diamondbacks are the best they’ve appeared on paper in Mike Hazen’s nine years as general manager. The San Francisco Giants believe their Cactus League title is a sign of good things to come. The San Diego Padres remain a threat, particularly if Yu Darvish gets healthy. But the Dodgers are still an overwhelming favorite to win the division and, yes, a second straight World Series. Just get them to the second round.
Juan Soto: Not an overpay … yet
So, what will it take for Soto to be worth $51 million per season, the average annual value of his 15-year, $765 million, free-agent contract with the New York Mets?
Fangraphs estimates 1 WAR to be worth about $8 million. Some models within the industry peg the value closer to $11 million to $12 million. Using those numbers, Soto would need to average between 4.25 WAR and 6.4 WAR to be worth $51 million annually. Including his prorated figure from the shortened 2020 campaign, his average fWAR the past six seasons was 6.1. Last season, he reached a career-high 8.1. And the value of 1 WAR only figures to rise.
Such analysis is overly simplistic, failing to account for Soto’s impact on attendance and other forms of revenue. Some in the industry also debate whether the measurement of WAR is linear, and if jumping from 4 to 5 WAR is more valuable, for example, than going from 0 to 1. But the basic idea is this: Soto in the early years of the deal might provide surplus value beyond $51 million per season. The latter years, though, could be Pujols ugly.
The Mets can worry about all that later. For now, their biggest concern is whether their starting pitching will be good enough to support a championship run. In the NL East alone, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies boast rotations that appear clearly superior. And if Soto puts up another 8 WAR season at age 26, the Mets will not want it to go to waste.
National League superiority – yes, even beyond L.A.
Now that the Yankees will be without 2023 AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole and, for at least two months, 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, an argument can be made that the NL is home to the five best teams.
We’re talking about the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Mets and Diamondbacks. A world also exists where other NL clubs — the Padres, Giants, Chicago Cubs, maybe the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers — prove quite formidable, too.
But let’s go back to Roberts’ fear of the Division Series — a legitimate fear, considering the Dodgers might face the Braves’ Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach. Or the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez. Or the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes and Eduardo Rodriguez. And those aren’t even all the possibilities from those clubs.
Consider this as well: The Diamondbacks and Phillies last season ranked first and fifth in the majors in runs, respectively. The Braves, once Ronald Acuña Jr. is healthy, could resume their offensive dominance. The Mets, too, should put up big numbers.
Yet another factor in this equation is the willingness of each club’s head of baseball operations to take bold action. The Phillies’ Dave Dombrowski and Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos, in particular, operate without fear. Hazen also has proven capable of making big moves. And while the Mets’ David Stearns is perhaps the most risk-averse of this group, he demonstrated a knack last season for adjusting on the fly.
None will concede to the big, bad Dodgers.
The AL East – aka the great wide open
Only once in the wild-card era have five teams in a division all finished at .500 or above — in the 2005 NL East, when the last-place Washington Nationals were 81-81. Fangraphs projects the 2025 AL East might do one better, predicting all five clubs will finish above .500.
The lowest playoff odds in the division belong to the Tampa Bay Rays, and they still possess a better than one-in-three chance of reaching the postseason at 37.6 percent. The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are in the mid-40s. The Boston Red Sox are at 54.7 percent, the Yankees at 62.8.
The Rays’ pitching and defense might be the best in the division, but they were next-to-last in the majors last season in runs scored. The move from Tropicana Park to Steinbrenner Field should enhance their offense and compromise their pitching, particularly if, as expected, playing home games outdoors leads to more rain delays and doubleheaders.
The Jays, all-in for the walk years of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, added right-hander Max Scherzer, outfielder Anthony Santander, second baseman Andrés Giménez and reliever Jeff Hoffman. The Orioles’ young core of position players remains the envy of the sport, though their starting pitching is a question. The Red Sox’s rotation is more talented but potentially volatile. Otherwise, this might be the game’s most improved club, particularly if one or more of their Big Three position prospects fulfills his hype.
The Yankees, meanwhile, are full of questions, and not just in their rotation. Their bullpen is also ravaged by injuries, and their lineup without Giancarlo Stanton and a full-time third baseman is too left-handed and too reliant on Aaron Judge. Even with all that, they remain the division favorite. But a series of unexpected roadblocks now stand in their way.
Major League Baseball in minor-league parks
You’ll hear people note all season that two teams, the A’s and Rays, are playing in minor-league facilities. But let’s be clear: The A’s tenure at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, for however long it lasts, is self-inflicted. The Rays are playing at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa for reasons beyond their control — a hurricane that tore off the roof of Tropicana Field.
Expect a flurry of stories about the charm of smaller minor-league facilities, how fans are closer to the action, how players are “coping” with lesser amenities. But the real intrigue lies in the impact of the expected fan excitement in both cities.
For the Rays, it likely will prove, once and for all, that the team belongs in Tampa. And for the A’s, it might cause owner John Fisher to think, “Why am I going to the 40th largest TV market, Las Vegas, when I could be in the 20th largest, Sacramento?” Or — sorry to bring this up, John — the 10th largest, the Bay Area market you left behind.
Anyway, here’s rooting for a Rays-A’s ALCS, locations to be determined. In the case of the A’s, the league would get what it deserves for allowing Fisher to instigate his end of this fiasco. Squirm, baby, squirm.
The trade deadline, starring Sandy Alcántara
With so many races projected to be close, the deadline should again play a major role in determining the playoff qualifiers. Alcántara, the Miami Marlins’ ace, soon will be a walking trade rumor, a transaction waiting to happen.
Spring-training results are largely meaningless, but Alcántara looks sufficiently recovered from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in October 2023. In 12 1/3 innings of Grapefruit League play, he allowed no earned runs, striking out 10, walking three — and touching 100 mph. With salaries of $17.3 million in 2025 and ’26 and a $21 million club option for 2027, he would be available for three pennant races. And the Marlins, bless their payroll-slashing hearts, are virtually certain to move him, even if it puts them at further risk of a grievance by the Players Association.
Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. projects to be the best hitter available, assuming he can stay healthy after missing significant time in three of the past four seasons. Then again, another oft-injured outfielder might be even more attractive if he stays on the field — three-time MVP Mike Trout.
Mind you, Trout has averaged 67 games the past four seasons. He turns 34 in August. And even if he performs close to his old levels, there is no guarantee he would waive his no-trade clause, or that a team would be willing to take on anything near the remainder of his $35.45 million salary this season or the $177.25 million he is owed from 2026 to ’30.
If Trout stays healthy enough to at least force the issue for Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno, the deadline might be even more interesting than usual. Assuming Moreno, who operates according to his own whims, is willing to play along.
Aging aces: Raging against the dying of the light
Imagine a 2031 Hall of Fame induction ceremony featuring Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. It’s a realistic possibility if this is the last season for each — a thought Verlander, in particular, does not seem ready to entertain.
Verlander, 42, is 38 wins shy of 300, a milestone he is open about wanting to achieve. He made a career-low 17 starts last season due to shoulder and neck trouble, but looked rejuvenated this spring with his new team, the Giants.
Scherzer, 40, is in a similar spot, coming off a career-low nine starts in an injury-marred season, and also looking good for his new club, the Blue Jays. But lingering thumb soreness occasionally makes it painful for Scherzer to grip a ball on the days after he throws. And he fears that the problem, if he continues pitching through it, will lead to a shoulder injury.
Then there is Kershaw, the youngest of the group at 37. He did not throw a single inning this spring while recovering from left toe and left knee surgeries, and is not expected back before June. After making a career-low seven starts last season, he wants to offer a more meaningful contribution. That way, he could retire on his terms, rather than have the game dictate the terms for him.
All three warhorses will be first-ballot Hall of Famers. For each, the only question is when.
Rookies: The next wave cometh
Roki Sasaki will draw the most attention, but the Dodgers’ expectations for the right-hander are not as lofty as some might expect. Team officials consider Sasaki something of a project, a developing pitcher who needs to continue refining his slider as a third pitch to complement his fastball and split. And at 23, it’s not as if Sasaki is going to pitch 160 innings. His career-high in Japan, back in 2022, was 129 1/3.
No matter how Sasaki performs, this year’s NL class probably will not match the quality of last year’s, which featured Pittsburgh Pirates righty Paul Skenes, Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill and Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio. But Nationals right fielder Dylan Crews, Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler and Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw, among others, are interesting. And Shaw, in particular, will be one to watch.
The Cubs could have afforded Shaw more development time by signing free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman. And while Cam Smith is moving from third base to right field with the Houston Astros, the frustration of Cubs fans will only grow if one of the players their team traded for Kyle Tucker proves a better prospect than the one they kept.
Smith, the Cubs’ first-round pick out of Florida State last year, will be a leading candidate for the AL Rookie award if he even faintly resembles the player he was in spring training. Detroit Tigers righty Jackson Jobe and Red Sox second baseman Kristian Campbell are perhaps better bets.
AL West: Fall of Astros, rise of deGrom?
Maybe the arrival of Smith will be enough to lift the Astros to their ninth straight postseason appearance, but so much is working against this team. The losses of Bregman, Tucker and reliever Ryan Pressly. The move of Jose Altuve from second base to left field. The possible insertion of Smith, another inexperienced outfielder, in right.
The Astros rebounded from a 7-19 start last season to win their eighth division title in nine years, but their 88 wins were their fewest in a full season since 2016, and they were swept by the Tigers in the wild-card round. Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes will help compensate for the losses of Tucker and Bregman. The increased competitiveness of the AL West, however, adds to the Astros’ degree of difficulty.
Both Fangraphs and PECOTA project that the Astros, Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners all will finish within two games of each other at the top of the division (Fangraphs has the Mariners winning, PECOTA the Rangers). The A’s are building around a young core. Even the Angels should improve.
The Rangers possess perhaps the greatest upside if — and it’s obviously a huge if — deGrom can stay healthy. The Rangers’ initial rotation, without injured veterans Jon Gray and Cody Bradford, will include rookies Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Their bullpen will be a work in progress. But Joc Pederson and Jake Burger should help their offense approximate its 2023 levels.
The Mariners boast perhaps the best rotation in the game. What they need is for Julio Rodríguez to return to his 2022-23 form and become what Bobby Witt Jr. was for the Kansas City Royals last season. Rodríguez alone can make the offense more presentable. If Randy Arozarena also proves a difference-maker, all the better.
AL Central: Now do it again
Last season was the first time in a full season three AL Central teams made the playoffs. A repeat performance in 2025 would appear unlikely, but heck, no one saw 2024 coming, either.
A manager in this division summed it up well: “Each team other than the White Sox is interesting but each is sort of on the verge of having issues.”
Consider:
• The Cleveland Guardians are the division’s most consistent team, ranking fourth in the majors since 2016 in regular-season wins. But as one rival executive put it, the Guards spun “a bullpen fairy tale” last season that will be difficult to repeat. They’re also replacing the entire right side of their infield following trades of first baseman Josh Naylor and second baseman Giménez.
• The Kansas City Royals are athletic. They feature Witt Jr., one of the best players in the game. And their front office is perhaps the most aggressive in the division. The question is whether they will pitch as well as they did last season, when they ranked eighth in the majors in ERA.
• The Minnesota Twins, well, you’ve heard it before. They need center fielder Byron Buxton, shortstop Carlos Correa and third baseman Royce Lewis to stay healthy. Lots of luck. Lewis will open the season on the injured list with a moderate left hamstring strain, and it’s not as if the team will boost payroll if other holes emerge. The Twins’ three free-agent additions — outfielder Harrison Bader, reliever Danny Coulombe and first baseman Ty France — cost a combined $10.25 million.
• The Tigers last season matched the Guardians for the third-best ERA in the majors, and their pitching this season might be even stronger. But the additions of second baseman Gleyber Torres and outfielder Manuel Margot might not be enough to make their offense even average, and their defense is also a concern.
Finding the NL Central’s leading man
Could be Tucker with the Cubs. Could be Brewers center fielder Chourio, who is coming off a spectacular rookie season and monster spring. Could be Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who might emerge as an MVP candidate. Could be Pirates ace Skenes, who is a decent bet to win a Cy Young award in his first full season.
It won’t be any of the St. Louis Cardinals, whose biggest accomplishment this season might be trading third baseman Nolan Arenado, right-hander Erick Fedde and closer Ryan Helsley — moves they should have made already, though Arenado foiled a deal to the Astros by invoking his no-trade clause.
Actually, the dominant figure in the division could very well be Reds manager Terry Francona, who takes over a talented club that last season was wrecked by injuries. The Reds still might be one bat short, even with the return of second baseman Matt McLain and additions of left fielder Austin Hays, catcher Jose Trevino and super utilityman Gavin Lux. Their Triple-A bullpen might be better than their major-league group. But with the Brewers doing little in the offseason, the Reds seem poised to take over as the NL Central team most likely to make the Cubs miserable.
Teams under the most pressure
Hoo boy, here we go. Let’s start with the Cubbies, whose president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, is entering the final year of a five-year deal. The Cubs have yet to make the playoffs with Hoyer as their top baseball executive. And much as owner Tom Ricketts might deserve it, he’s not going to blame himself if things again go awry.
Perhaps no team is invested more in 2025 than the Blue Jays, who, rather than trade Guerrero and Bichette, built a top-five payroll instead. Team president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract. GM Ross Atkins has two more years. And the Jays’ farm system ranks 24th, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law.
The Mariners were first in Law’s rankings, but this is Jerry Dipoto’s 10th season as the head of baseball operations, and the team has made the playoffs only once. The Orioles’ rebuild under Mike Elias is complete, but they’re 0-5 the last two postseasons. The Nationals appear headed for their sixth straight losing season. The Colorado Rockies, while also not without promise, never seem to get it right.
Whether the Rockies face pressure is debatable — they seem to operate in a parallel universe, yet still average more than 30,000 fans per game at Coors Field. The Phillies are at the other end of the spectrum. Many of their best players are in their 30s. Catcher J.T. Realmuto and designated hitter Kyle Schwarber are entering the final years of contracts. And in each of the past two postseasons, they’ve suffered earlier eliminations.
The time is now for the Phillies. Actually, the time should be now for all 30 clubs. The expansion of the postseason from 10 to 12 teams in 2022 made it easier than ever for teams to make the playoffs — and more difficult than ever for them to make excuses.
So, away we go. I have the Braves beating the Rangers in the World Series, but what do I know? What does anyone know? The six-month soap operas are about to unfold. And the plots are a mystery to us all.
(Top photo illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Source photos: David Durochik, Cliff Welch, Alejandra Villa Loarca/Getty Images)
