The Upper Midwest Is in the Bull’s-Eye of a Severe Weather Threat on Monday

Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to tear across the Midwest on Monday. The storms, capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and intense tornadoes, are predicted to be most severe in the afternoon and evening.

There is potential for thunderstorms across a large area from West Texas to the Great Lakes, but northeast Iowa into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin is expected to be in the bull’s-eye of severe weather. This area, which includes Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minn., is under a relatively high risk (Level 4 out of 5) of severe weather, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center.

As for timings, Matt Mosier, lead forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center, said the most dangerous period would most likely be from late Monday afternoon into the evening. Storms are expected to develop in Minnesota and Iowa before moving eastward into Wisconsin, he said.

The most widespread threat will be large hail, with some areas seeing pieces as big as Ping-Pong balls. This hail threat will stretch from the upper Midwest down into parts of the southern Plains. Even larger hail, up to the size of tennis balls, is possible in some spots.

The risk of damaging winds, some over 60 miles per hour, and tornadoes will affect a narrower area.

“The wind potential is concentrated up in the upper Midwest, mainly in Minnesota and Wisconsin,” Mr. Mosier said, noting that there was “significant” tornado potential in the same areas.

An area spread between the northern Plains and the upper Midwest is at a marginal risk, (Level 1 out of 4) for heavy rains that could lead to flooding. The Quad Cities and the Twin Cities, along with Milwaukee and Madison, Wis., could see isolated flash flooding.

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