Few things in sports capture our imagination like a Cinderella run during March Madness. The possibility of an underdog shocking the world on the biggest stage draws millions of viewers to the event each year. The structure of the NCAA women’s tournament — in which the top four seeds in each region host their games for the first two rounds — makes it even more difficult for an aspiring Cinderella to pull off an upset or two. Still, with increased parity in the women’s game, fans should expect at least a couple of double-digit seeds to make some noise in this year’s tournament.
So who will be this year’s Creighton (2022) or Quinnipiac (2017), double-digit seeds that made deep tournament runs? Who will bust brackets in your office pool? Here are three teams with double-digit seeds primed to don Cinderella’s glass slipper this year.
(The chances of a team reaching the Sweet 16 are based on the results of the Her Hoop Stats prediction model and 25,000 tournament simulations. The historical chances of a given seed reaching the Sweet 16 reflect how often that seed has made it to the Sweet 16 in the history of the women’s tournament.)
Chance to reach Sweet 16: 9.5 percent
Historical chance for a No. 10 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 4.7 percent
When considering upset-minded teams, why not start with the program responsible for the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history? Harvard, which upset No. 1 Stanford as a No. 16 seed in 1998, possesses several key components to make a deep run in the tournament: superb defense, deliberate pace, a battle-tested roster, and Harmoni Turner.
The Crimson allowed just 77.8 points per 100 possessions, a defensive rating that not only led the Ivy League by a wide margin but ranked fourth across Division I. The engine behind Harvard’s defensive success is its full-court press, which has forced opponents into more than 20 turnovers per game. The Crimson’s ability to wreak havoc on opposing offenses was on full display in its overtime win over Indiana back in November, when it forced the Hoosiers into a season-high 27 turnovers.
Playing at a slow pace generally favors underdogs because fewer possessions means more variance in the game outcome. Harvard averages 67 possessions per game, which ranks 317th out of 362 Division I teams. If the Crimson can control the tempo against first-round opponent Michigan State and potential round-of-32 opponent North Carolina State, it could pull off both upsets.
Harvard’s performances against quality competition also bode well for busting brackets this weekend. The Ivy League champions went 2-0 in Quad 1 games and posted a respectable 4-3 record against teams in the NET’s top 50, never losing by more than 12 points in such games.
And then there’s Turner. The Ivy League player of the year and Becky Hammon mid-major player of the year finalist is a game changer on both ends of the floor. A master of creating her own shot and a bona fide three-level scorer, Turner can knock down a step-back three, hit a midrange jumper and slash to the rim. With her team on the tournament bubble heading into the semifinals of Ivy Madness against Princeton, Turner’s 44-point explosion showed what she is capable of in a high-stakes environment.
Chance to reach Sweet 16: 7.3 percent
Historical chance for a No. 10 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 4.7 percent
The Cornhuskers have not been to the Sweet 16 since 2013 but have been taking steps in the right direction recently. In 2022, as a No. 8 seed, they lost to Gonzaga in the first round. In 2024, as a No. 6 seed, they beat Texas A&M in the first round before falling to No. 3 seed Oregon State in the round of 32. Could this be the year Nebraska breaks through to the second weekend?
Playing in a Big Ten conference that sent 12 teams to the NCAA tournament, Nebraska faced a gantlet of top-tier competition this season. It was even more difficult after the Cornhuskers lost redshirt junior Allison Weidner and 2024 Big Ten co-freshman of the year Natalie Potts to season-ending injuries. The Cornhuskers went 4-10 in Quad 1 games, but they might be peaking at the right time. They have exhibited clear improvement throughout the 2024-25 campaign, most notably in the Big Ten tournament. After suffering a 37-point loss to top-ranked UCLA on Dec. 29, the Cornhuskers went toe-to-toe with the Bruins for three quarters in the Big Ten quarterfinals before ultimately falling, 85-74.
The Cornhuskers’ March Madness fortunes run through the dynamic duo of senior forward Alexis Markowski and freshman guard Britt Prince. The 6-foot-3 Markowski, a second-team all-Big Ten selection, ranks fourth among active Division I players with 52 career double-doubles. Prince, a Big Ten all-freshman team selection, is a versatile 5-foot-11 guard who averages 13.4 points per game and became the first Big Ten freshman since Northwestern’s Veronica Burton in 2018-19 to rank in the conference’s top 10 in steals and assists per Big Ten game. Prince’s efficiency from outside coupled with Markowski’s interior dominance make for a combination that could propel the Cornhuskers to the Sweet 16.
They would have to beat No. 7 seed Louisville and then probably No. 2 seed TCU in Fort Worth to get there.
Chance to reach Sweet 16: 7.5 percent
Historical chance for a No. 11 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 9.6 percent
The nation’s No. 1 scoring offense and a quartet of players averaging at least 13 points per game is a pretty good recipe for an upset or two in the NCAA tournament.
Murray State’s high-octane offense propelled the program to the Missouri Valley Conference title and its second NCAA tournament appearance. Few teams have figured out how to slow down an offense that puts up 87.8 points per game and ranks in the nation’s top 10 percent in nearly every offensive efficiency category. Murray State offered a glimpse of what its offense is capable of against the cream of the basketball crop when it used a 32-point second quarter to take a nine-point halftime lead at LSU back in November before struggling in the second half. The Racers are rarely out of any game with their ability to put up points so quickly.
The Racers’ balanced scoring attack is led by fifth-year Katelyn Young, whose 3,023 career points are the most among active players.
Murray State faces No. 6 Iowa in the first round of the tournament, and then would probably have to beat No. 3 seed Oklahoma to reach the Sweet 16.
Adam Vachon is a contributing writer for herhoopstats.com.
