The bad boys and girls superhero movie Thunderbolts* about the continuing adventures of Yelena Belova, Winter Soldier, Alexei Shostakov, Ghost, and John Walker is hoping to keep the box office ball in fast play with a $175M global start as Marvel Studios‘ kicks off summer on Friday, a traditional feat that they weren’t able to do a year ago due to the aftermath of the strikes.
Currently U.S./Canada presales for Thunderbolts* stands at $12M+ which is on pace with another first installment MCU movie, 2021’s Eternals ($71.2M). That figure is also ahead of presales for that year’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings ($75.3M) and behind this year’s Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8M). Hence, the current opening projection on Thunderbolts* is $70M-$75M domestic at 4,300 theaters with another $90M-$100M abroad. Like previous MCU titles, the expected draw are males over and under 25. Given that Thunderbolts* is largely Pugh’s movie, it will be interesting to see if her Little Women and Don’t Worry Darling female fanbase shows up; women under 25 currently trailing men under 25 in first choice.
The plus factor for Thunderbolts* are that reviews out of last night’s Hollywood premiere are pretty good at 89% certified fresh which is higher than Captain America: Brave New World (48% rotten), Eternals (47%) and even The Marvels (62%). Hopefully, that will give some boom to the pic’s box office.
Previews start Thursday at 2PM for the movie from Beef Emmy-winning episodic and Robot & Frank director Jake Schreier. Essentially, Thunderbolts* has the marketplace to itself until New Line’s Final Destination: Bloodlines opens on May 16. Thunderbolts* was made for $180M net and had production paused due to the strikes.
Thunderbolts* conquers all of the premium screens (Imax, PLF, etc) that Warner Bros’ Sinners possessed, but still that won’t put a hex on the Ryan Coogler directed, Michael B. Jordan starring vampire film which per industry estimates looks to ease between -25% to -30% in its third weekend with $32M-$34.2M. Sinners posted the second best hold for a R-rated horror movie with -5% in its second weekend, just behind Sony/Spyglass’ Heart Eyes (+19%). By comparison, Jordan Peele’s 2017 horror movie Get Out eased -15% in its second frame and -27% in its third. Sinners grossed $5.5M in its second Monday for a running cume of $128.7M, +59% ahead of Get Out‘s first 11 days; that title ending its stateside run at $176M.
Thunderbolts* gets going at the international box office beginning Wednesday, notably in France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Korea and China. Thursday adds the UK, Australia, Brazil, Germany, Mexico and others while Friday ushers in Japan. In total, this is a day-and-date global release alongside domestic.
The $90M-$100M opening offshore range comps to Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings which bowed to $52M in like-for-likes at open (this does not include China where the movie did not release). Another Marvel title that did not release in China, The Eternals, did $88M in its overseas bow. The first Ant-Man did $103M, including $37M from China while the first Guardians of the Galaxy did $98M including $26M from China. Note that all of the above figures are at today’s rates.
There are May 1 holidays in many markets which will help provide a clearer picture post-Thursday. Note that China is opening on a non-traditional Wednesday and Thunderbolts* currently leads presales on that day, but this is a competitive frame with several local titles launching as well.
We expect a mix of the UK, Germany, France, Brazil and Mexico to do the biggest business.
The London premiere for Thunderbolts*, followed by the LA unveiling, have helped spur presales in many offshore markets.
Dis also held word-of-mouth screenings in the past week for influences and fans in 15 markets, including Germany, Brazil and Mexico.
Also opening in the U.S. is Roadside Attractions’ Cannes acquisition The Surfer starring Nicolas Cage from filmmaker Lorcan Finnegan. Pic’s blurb: A man returns to the idyllic beach of his childhood to surf with his son. When he is humiliated by a group of locals, the man is drawn into a conflict that keeps rising and pushes him to his breaking point. The movie stands at 88% fresh with critics and is eyeing $1M+ at 900 engagements.
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