Good morning. Yesterday one of the most powerful earthquakes ever recorded hit a sparsely populated region in far east Russia.
It triggered a tsunami that started crossing the ocean at hundreds of miles an hour. What followed was a race against time – early warning systems went into alert mode as waves fanned out towards the coastlines of Japan, Hawaii and the US west coast.
The damage appears to have been minor so far and this is (in part) thanks to a global and highly successful disaster response effort. More than three million people were successfully warned to evacuate their homes.
At the centre of this remarkable response was the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) based in Hawaii; founded in 1949, by the 1960s it was monitoring tsunamis across the entire ocean. A small team of experts identified the size and depth of the earthquake, and a tsunami warning was triggered straight away. The whole thing worked like clockwork – their speed and accuracy may have saved thousands of lives, with temporary evacuees now allowed to return home.
But this type of work could be under threat. The PTWC is part of a US government agency that has faced cuts from Trump’s government. To understand why the response was so effective, and why funding such warning systems is so valuable, I spoke to Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at University College London. That’s after the headlines.
Five big stories
- Travel | The head of the UK’s air traffic control company is facing calls to resign after hundreds of flights were delayed when the system went down for about 20 minutes on Wednesday.
- Israel-Gaza war | A British-Israeli woman who was held hostage by Hamas for more than 15 months has accused Keir Starmer of “moral failure” after he set the UK on course to recognise a Palestinian state. Emily Damari, 29, who was released in January, said the prime minister was “not standing on the right side of history” and should be ashamed.
- UK news | The co-founder of Palestine Action can bring a legal challenge to the home secretary’s decision to ban the direct action group under anti-terrorism laws, a high court judge has ruled.
- Environment | Ethnic minorities and people living in the most deprived areas of England are at increased risk of dying due to excess heat, according to new research.
- Technology | Five million extra online age checks a day are being carried out in the UK since the Online Safety Act introduced age-gating for pornography sites, according to new data from the Age Verification Providers Association.
In depth: ‘Lives were saved by drawing on past experience’
The Klyuchevskoy volcano on the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia’s far east has started erupting after Wednesday’s powerful earthquake. Photograph: Yuri Demyanchuk/AP
The 8.8-magnitude earthquake hit off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula early yesterday morning. The rupture happened along hundreds of kilometres of a fault line where the Pacific plate is sinking below the North American plate. This is one of the largest faults on earth (it’s called a megathrust fault) and parts of it are underwater, which means there is always a tsunami risk.
The earthquake was 47 kilometres (30 miles) beneath sea level and sent shock waves at a range of 300 kilometres (200 miles). Tsunamis travel across the ocean at about 500mph, the speed of a jumbo jet, so some communities had a just few minutes warning, while those on the other side of the ocean had a few hours. Unlike in the movies, when it’s typically one massive wave, tsunamis are often several waves which will continue to travel around the world for days.
What has the damage been and where?
The epicentre was near the Russian city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, which has a population of 180,000 people. Residents fled inland as ports flooded, while 200 miles north the Klyuchevskoy volcano (above) erupted, with lava descending its western slope.
Maximum tsunami wave heights of 4 metres (13ft) were observed in Kamchatka. Some buildings on the coastal area of Severo-Kurilsk in Russia were swept away, according to local officials. The Kremlin has said alert systems “worked well” in the earthquake response and there were “no casualties”.
The tsunami prompted warnings and evacuations across the Pacific, including in Japan, US west coast, Hawaii, Canada, Chile, Ecuador and New Zealand. However, the height of the waves turned out to be lower than initially feared. In Hawaii the highest recorded waves reached 1.8 metres (6ft), in California there were surges of just over a metre (3.6ft), and in Japan waves remained under half a metre.
How good was the warning system?
Local authorities were clear about how to evacuate and gave specific locations across more than a dozen nations.
In Hawaii, for example, tsunami warning sirens blared. Evacuations were ordered for some coastal areas as the Honolulu department of emergency management warned: “Take Action! Destructive tsunami waves expected.” People received alerts on their phones. All islands activated emergency operating centres, shelters opened, and people in coastal areas were told to go to higher ground.
Similar warnings were issued elsewhere. In Japan, almost two million people had been ordered to higher ground. Local media reported one fatality of a woman killed while driving her car off a cliff as she tried to escape. In Chile, authorities conducted what the interior ministry said was “perhaps the most massive evacuation ever carried out in our country” involving 1.4 million.
“It looks like it’s been very effective. People had that long-term education, and that long-term readiness to know what to do,” says Kelman, estimating that this preparedness saved thousands of lives. At this time of year there is a lot of tourist activity along many Pacific coastlines, and visitors are often unfamiliar with local warning systems or evacuation zones. This can make evacuations more challenging.
“It appears from places where the tsunami wave has hit, numerous lives were saved by drawing on that past experience,” says Kelman, notably the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami which killed more than 200,000 people. At the time there was no regional tsunami early warning system in place, and the Indian ocean was not considered a high-risk area. Some warnings were sent by fax and email, and didn’t reach people in time.
The 2004 tsunami was also significantly more severe – some waves exceeded 30 metres in height, whereas so far waves from this latest tsunami appear to have reached a maximum of five metres in Russia, says Kelman. In most places waves were less than a metre high, and in many places impacts were negligible so the disaster that was anticipated didn’t arrive. This is another important factor in why damage has been limited.
What improvements can be made?
Several international centres send out automatic messages for earthquakes, depending on the location. The Indian Ocean tsunami warning system was set up after 2004. “It was never done before then because it was always too expensive, there were always other priorities, but suddenly it became a priority … It has been tested several times with mixed results, so we have to improve it,” says Kelman. There is no effective equivalent for the Atlantic Ocean.
The key one that identified this earthquake was the PTWC. “They were on it right away,” says Kelman. “Knowing the size of the earthquake and the depth of the earthquake and the type of the earthquake meant that there was a significant chance of a major tsunami. They issued tsunami warnings and got the messages out there, which were then disseminated by national governments and local authorities.”
However, the PTWC sits within a US government agency targeted by Elon Musk-led cuts earlier this year. Kelman says this tsunami showed how needed they are. “We would hope that if the cuts did affect them, they will be reversed and that the people who have saved lives today will also get more support for appropriate resources,” he says.
“It appears that they were nonetheless exceptionally effective, and we owe them so many thanks for issuing appropriate messages and saving many lives.”
What else we’ve been reading
Children look at sandbags covering the windows at a preschool in Lviv, Ukraine. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
- This devastating piece details the impact the Russia-Ukraine war has had on Ukrainian children, with almost 3,000 injured or killed. Aamna
- Every so often we get some sinister message from the deep. Most recently beaked whales – which are among the world’s deepest dwelling – have been washing up in Scotland and the Netherlands. Phoebe
- My brilliant colleague Sammy Gecsoyler has a problem: he’s addicted to buying Ninja kitchen appliances. This made me chuckle – I’m sure it’ll make you laugh, too. Aamna
- An amusing read here from Elle Hunt on ten things you may (or may not) want to learn about Gwyneth Paltrow from a new biography on the actor turned wellness entrepreneur. Phoebe
- Lina Qasem-Hassan is one of many Palestinian doctors in Israel. Despite being persecuted for doing so, she vows to continue speaking out against the killing of medics and patients in Gaza. Aamna
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Sport
Kim Le Court of Mauritius became the first African to win a stage at the Tour de France Femmes. Photograph: Szymon Gruchalski/Getty Images
Cricket | Ben Stokes has been ruled out of the final Test match of England’s international summer with a grade-three muscle tear in his shoulder, aggravated during the drawn fourth game against India at Old Trafford. Ollie Pope will captain the side in his absence at the Oval on Thursday as England seek to defend their 2-1 lead and complete a series victory.
Cycling | Kim Le Court (pictured above) won stage five of the Tour de France Femmes, becoming the first African rider to win a stage of the race. The Mauritian also took the yellow jersey from Marianne Vos, who lost time on her rivals after getting dropped by a breakaway.
Football | Manchester United are interested in signing Ollie Watkins but are unwilling to meet Aston Villa’s valuation of the striker. Arsenal made numerous bids for the England international in January but were knocked back as Villa held out for £60m, a fee they would demand for any sale this summer.
The front pages
Photograph: Guardian
The Guardian leads with “Palestine Action wins right to fight ban in court”. The Times has “Palestine vow breaks law, claim top lawyers”, while the Mail follows the same story with “Shame on you, Starmer”. The i reports “UK plan to get aid trucks into Gaza – as Starmer joins allies in new warning to Israel”.
The Financial Times has “Fed defies Trump to keep rates steady amid historic split in US policy-setters”. The Mirror leads with the farewell procession for Ozzy Osbourne, under the headline “Sign of love”. The Telegraph has “Heathrow chaos to bring days of delays”, while the Sun follows the same story with “Air we go again”.
Today in Focus
Palestinian child Yazan Abu Foul, aged two, is cared for by his mother, Naima, as he suffers from severe malnutrition. Photograph: Haitham Imad/EPA
How will the UK’s recognition of Palestine help those starving in Gaza?
Surgeon Nick Maynard describes the unfolding famine he witnessed during his volunteering in Gaza, while our chief Middle East correspondent, Emma Graham-Harrison, analyses whether the UK’s proposed recognition of Palestine will alleviate the suffering there at all.
Cartoon of the day | Stephen Lillie
Illustration: Stephen Lillie
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
The premiere of Dreams in Nightmares at the BlackStar film festival in 2024. Photograph: Mochi Robinson
The BlackStar film festival, often called the “Black Sundance,” returns for its 14th year. This year’s lineup features more than 90 films, from shorts to features, exploring themes of legacy, labour, economics and the power of community.
Over 15,000 people attended last year, drawn to its boundary-pushing films and its focus on solidarity among Black, brown and Indigenous creators. The festival also stands out for its inclusivity: offering childcare for film-makers, ASL interpreters at events and audio descriptions for some screenings.
Eight independent film-makers will also pitch new projects to a panel of executives, funders and producers, competing for $75,000 in production support and mentorship from Multitude Films.
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