L to R: Philippine Velge and the Spinosaurus in JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH, directed by Gareth Edwards.
Pros
- Although it seems that Jurassic World Rebirth will potentially be the first Jurassic to open below $100M since Jurassic Park III‘s $50.77M in 2001, we believe it has the perfect mix of marketing buzz, IP recognition, and blockbuster vacuum to climb up to $120M – $140M for the 5-day July 4 frame. The showtime market share backs up our sentiment, claiming a commanding 31% of all showtimes in the United States over the weekend. Previous entry Jurassic World Dominion was not universally beloved, doing less business than the 1993 original both domestically and worldwide… but it still had enough juice to cross the global billion-dollar mark. A new cast led by Marvel icon Scarlett Johansson and Oscar-winner Mahershala Ali lends an element of star power that will surely entice even those most critical of Dominion. The lack of Chris Pratt or any of the legacy players (Dern, Goldblum, Neill, et al) could be perceived as both a liability and a plus in this instance. Executive producer Steven Spielberg was reportedly more involved in the creation of the story this time.
Cons
- Assuming Jurassic World Rebirth is a success, it could follow the pattern of the previous two Jurassic trilogies, where the first entry makes the most money and then the next two show diminishing returns. If it’s not a success, it may be because this one (unlike the previous two trilogy starters) has not been embraced by critics, who gave it a splat on RT with 53%. That’s following the scorched earth of Jurassic World Dominion, which earned a franchise-low 29% critical. Of course, Rebirth is going to EARN no matter what this weekend, but subsequent frames are now riding on that CinemaScore/word-of-mouth to keep momentum going to turn this into the global hit and trilogy kickoff Universal expects. The actual July 4 holiday falling on a Friday could mean overall lower box office than typical Independence Day frames, hence Universal launching the film early today on 4000 screens before bumping up to 4300 on Friday to get those pre-BBQ dollars. Superman will likely chip into the film’s domestic legs, making opening weekend that much more important for the film to establish a foothold in the market
Pros
- Our prediction panel is betting on a strong hold for F1: The Movie, especially after a stellar first frame where it went beyond our high-end expectations to cross the finish line at $57M (up from a $55.6M Sunday estimate). There’s a strong chance this one could wind up as the biggest-grossing live-action sports racing movie after 2006’s Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby ($148.2M). That is, of course, not counting Pixar’s Cars entries (which are animated) or the Fast & Furious films, which are technically street racing/heist/super spy movies.
Cons
- Apple is a little less concerned than most studios in ensuring this is a profitable theatrical play on the production side, considering F1’s role in driving paying customers onto their streaming platform. The one-two punch of Jurassic and Superman over the next two weeks are doing Brad Pitt no favors, especially with Universal’s dinosaurs hogging a majority of F1‘s PLFs.
Pros
- Universal and DreamWorks’ How to Train Your Dragon should maintain momentum as the most consistent family title in the current market, especially after the woes of Elio. When it comes to the under-12’s this title is still the best alternative to the “scary” dinosaurs and Brad Pitt’s “boring” vroom vroom, hence our panel predicting a very small percentage drop from Frame 3’s $19.59M (up slightly from Sunday’s $19.4M estimate). With major IP awareness and an under-control budget, Universal surely knew they had a hit on their hands all along, especially considering they greenlit the sequel three months ago.
Cons
- While How to Train Your Dragon is likely maintaining the #3 spot, the heavily-publicized Paramount+ streaming movie debut Dora and the Search for Sol Dorado (another cartoon-to-live-action entry) could actually keep the kiddies from climbing into mom’s SUV to see the dragons this frame. Sony’s Smurfs is not too far off either (July 18), but luckily, this one should be winding down by then.
L to R: Philippine Velge and the Spinosaurus in JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH, directed by Gareth Edwards.
