MADISON, Wis. — In the first major electoral test for the MAGA movement since President Donald Trump won his second term, Wisconsin voters will decide Tuesday whether to elect a Trump ally to the state’s top court.
The election — the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history — will determine whether conservatives can topple the 4-3 liberal majority that has controlled the court for the past two years.
The Wisconsin race, in conjunction with two special elections Tuesday for House seats in Florida, will be scrutinized nationally for signs of what it means for Trump’s ability to maintain momentum for his agenda. Trump adviser and tech billionaire Elon Musk has also enmeshed himself in the Wisconsin race by dispatching his political operation in the state and handing out $1 million checks to two voters at a rally on Sunday.
The election comes as Trump’s approval ratings have sagged while his administration has carried out drastic cuts to many federal programs and moved toward imposing massive tariffs that some economists fear could lead to a recession.
Trump and Musk are supporting Brad Schimel, a Waukesha County judge and former Republican state attorney general. Schimel faces Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge who has won the backing of former president Barack Obama and other Democrats.
Two years ago, Wisconsin set a national spending record of $56 million for a state Supreme Court race. This year’s race has obliterated that record, costing more than $100 million so far, according to WisPolitics.com.
Crawford has benefited from large donations to the state Democratic Party from liberal billionaires — $1.5 million from Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D), $1 million from financier George Soros and $250,000 from LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman.
Musk and groups affiliated with him have invested far more than that: more than $20 million. On Sunday, Musk hosted a rally for Schimel in Green Bay, Wisconsin, where he handed out $1 million checks to two voters — one of whom is the chairman of the state College Republicans.
Ahead of the event, Musk posted on X, the social media platform he owns, that he would give $1 million prizes “in appreciation for you taking the time to vote.” After legal scholars questioned the plan, Musk deleted the message and posted another one saying his event was open to Wisconsin registered voters who signed a petition opposing activist judges.
On Friday, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul (D) sued over the plan, saying it violated an anti-bribery law that bars giving voters something of value in exchange for casting ballots. Musk’s team argued the payments were for signing the petition and serving as spokespeople, not for voting.
When a judge did not immediately hold a hearing, Kaul asked an appeals court and the state Supreme Court to intervene. Both declined to get involved.
For weeks, Musk’s America PAC has offered registered voters in the state $100 for signing the petition. On Sunday, Musk said the PAC would pay people $20 for each picture they took with a voter holding a photo of Schimel and giving a thumbs up.
Musk spent much of Sunday’s rally talking about the work of his U.S. DOGE Service, the non-Cabinet agency focused on downsizing the federal government. Democrats have attacked Musk’s efforts as chaotic and dangerous and portrayed the Wisconsin race as a way to push back against Trump and Musk’s endeavors.
Early voting has been robust for a Wisconsin Supreme Court race. As of Monday, 644,000 people had voted by mail or in person — about 1½ times as many people who voted early in the last court race, in 2023.
Musk said he had jumped in the race because he fears liberals on the court will redraw the state’s congressional districts if they keep their majority. Republicans hold six of the state’s eight congressional districts.
“Whichever party controls the House, to a significant degree, controls the country, which then steers the course of Western civilization,” Musk said. “I feel like this is one of those things that you may not see that it’s going to affect the entire destiny of humanity, but I think it will.”
There is no pending litigation over the House seats, but a lawsuit is feasible. Shortly after liberals took control of the court in 2023, voters sued over state legislative districts and the court quickly invalidated them. That led to new maps that greatly cut into the large Republican majorities in the state legislature.
Eric Holder, who served as Obama’s first attorney general and now leads a Democratic group focused on redistricting, said in an interview that Wisconsin’s U.S. House map is “pretty obviously gerrymandered.” He supports Crawford and said he is worried the court will reverse its decision on state legislative maps if Schimel wins.
“I’m concerned that if Schimel were to win, that you could see a reversal of what I think was a really good opinion by the Wisconsin Supreme Court and put at risk the democracy — pro-democracy — efforts that were done by that Supreme Court,” he said.
At Sunday’s rally, Musk didn’t mention the lawsuit that his electric vehicle company, Tesla, filed against the state in January over its ban on car manufacturers owning dealerships. That case is now before a county judge but could make its way to the state Supreme Court.
Whoever wins the election will be sworn in on Aug. 1. Between now and then, the court is expected to decide whether abortion remains legal in the state.
Also Tuesday, voters in Florida will fill two vacant House seats in special elections in Florida. The districts tilt Republican, but both sides are watching to see if Democrats can overperform by channeling anger about Trump’s agenda.
