The women’s NCAA basketball tournament has a history of chalk. For decades, the sport has been defined by dynasties that dominate each year, taking enormously long odds into March Madness on their way to titles, such as with South Carolina‘s -140 odds going into last year’s tournament.
It’s a different story in 2025. For the first time in at least 10 seasons, the national championship favorite is longer than +200, with the Gamecocks sporting +240 odds on ESPN BET. Adding in UConn (+260), UCLA (+650), Texas (+800) and USC (+900), there are five teams shorter than +1000 to win the national championship headed into the big dance.
“It’s definitely more exciting to be putting up these odds,” BetMGM sports trader Hannah Luther told ESPN. “We’ve had more teams to juggle to try not to rack liability up on because we do think there’s several contenders to win this year.”
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Just following the bracket release on Selection Sunday, Notre Dame also counted itself in the single-digit odds range at +750 and has since lengthened to +1200, but that’s still well above the next tier of teams at +5000. The immediate action also pushed UCLA, Texas and USC to slightly longer odds than what they had on Sunday, but those moves could ultimately prompt more betting on them.
“We offered shorter odds than most on UCLA, Texas, USC and Notre Dame for most of the season, which speaks to how competitive we think this field is,” ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton said via email. “There are a number of good teams, which makes for a compelling tournament and potentially more storylines and big games to engage our users throughout.”
Favorites or not, these are the biggest betting storylines to watch out for in the women’s tournament. It begins with the perennial contenders that every bettor will have their eyes on …
Battle of the dynasties
Paige Bueckers and the UConn Huskies will be looking to end the nine-year title drought in Storrs — and they’re one of the top favorites to do so. David Butler II-Imagn Images
In 2016, UConn entered the tournament as enormous -900 favorites to win it all, ultimately fulfilling the chalk to win its record 11th title. Nine years later, that ended up being the most recent national championship the Huskies would win, an eternity of a drought for the program under head coach Geno Auriemma.
The next season, South Carolina would go on to win its first national title, following it up with championships in 2022 and 2024. Head coach Dawn Staley will attempt to finally wrangle her elusive first repeat title this season.
Even with all of the increased parity and opportunities for other programs, the focus of bettors and bookmakers alike still lies with the two modern dynasties, especially amid excellent seasons from both. DraftKings reports that 68% of all national championship future wagers are with South Carolina or UConn, while 71% of the combined handle is with the pair at ESPN BET.
The two teams’ odds have shortened since Selection Sunday, moving from +275 to +240 and +300 to +260, respectively, at the sportsbook.
“UConn looks like our second-most popular team after South Carolina for futures,” said Luther, adding that the Huskies are ranked “two or three” in the book’s power rankings behind the Gamecocks. “Definitely got to keep those odds low.”
South Carolina opened the season as the favorite and largely held that position for most of the season until Feb. 16, when UConn hugely upset the balance by demolishing the Gamecocks in Columbia, vaulting the Huskies to favorite status. Heavy action such as a $25,000 wager at BetMGM with +320 odds and domination of the SEC has since brought South Carolina back to the top of the odds board, but UConn is surely waiting to get another shot.
The surprise No. 1
Arguably the biggest surprise of the women’s college basketball regular season was the ascendance of UCLA.
The Bruins opened at +1600 and shortened to +1200 — sixth on ESPN BET’s odds board — by season’s beginning, but few people expected a 30-2 record, a Big Ten Tournament title and the top seed for March Madness to be the result.
“If you told me a few months ago UCLA would be the number one overall seed, I don’t know if I would’ve believed you,” Luther said.
“They were probably the biggest adjustment during the year because we didn’t really see that coming, them being in the position that they’re in,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “With that being said, it’s not like the public pounded them because I don’t think the public saw it coming either. So there’s not any really huge hazard there.”
To that end, UCLA attracted only the fifth-most tickets and handle on national championship futures at BetMGM as of Sunday night. As of Tuesday afternoon, DraftKings reports the third-most money and fourth-most wagers backing the Bruins, but they still significantly trail South Carolina and UConn despite attaining the tournament’s top seed.
Luther believes that as the week progresses, their status at the top “will probably bring some more interest to them.”
Bookmakers had been expecting action on UCLA’s rival, USC, throughout the year and that has largely held true, with DraftKings reporting the third-most handle backing the Trojans, who were the only team to beat the Bruins this year. USC then fell to UCLA in the Big Ten title game, but if the two teams were to face each other again, it would be in the Final Four.
The field
Two years after winning the national championship as a No. 3 seed, LSU women’s basketball is looking to make some big upsets as they make a run for the title this year. Eakin Howard/Getty Images
Of the top six favorites that have separated themselves from the pack according to the national championship odds, only Texas Longhorns has received very little attention from the betting public, attracting the seventh-most handle at ESPN BET and the eighth-most at DraftKings. At BetMGM, the Longhorns saw their odds lengthen from +325 at open to +700 now.
Of course, there are more teams than just the favorites that have a shot at winning it all or at least making it to the Final Four.
“Once we get past those six, I think there are teams down there that could make a run,” said Avello. “LSU could make a run, Duke could make a run, NC State, but can they get past maybe two of [the top six]? That’s what it’s going to take.”
LSU (+7500), who won the national championship as a three seed just two seasons ago, has attracted attention from bettors, snagging the sixth-most tickets at ESPN BET and DraftKings. In the same region, NC State (+5000) has also garnered some action at BetMGM.
“They made a run to the Final Four last year,” Luther said. “We tend to see people repeating if somebody made a big run, they think the team might do it again.” For bettors of that mind, betting the region winner or “to make the Final Four” could end up being more apt.
Other lurking underdogs with action supporting them include Duke and TCU, both at +5000.
Although women’s college basketball has often been a favorites game, bettors should certainly be wary of the great equalizer that is the spread: On a game-to-game basis in the 2024 tournament, underdogs narrowly won the cover battle against the favorites 34-32.
