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Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
The first round of the NCAA Tournament brought us a wealth of excitement. Most of it, however, comes from the anticipation of the crop of second-round games it set up. Only four lower-seeded teams won in the first round, including just two double-digit seeds moving on in No. 10 Oregon and No. 10 South Dakota State.
So much of March is about styles and how they contrast. Take Vanderbilt against Oregon, where the Commodores struggled mightily with foul trouble. In a smaller team built more on speed, Vandy relies on help and ball pressure to defend the post. Factor in 6-foot-8 Philipina Kyei of Oregon, and that’s just an entirely different kind of presence in the paint. Look solely at the box score, and her seven points completely undersell her impact. She snagged five massive offensive boards and nearly every triple the Ducks hit was due to her gravity.
The second the clock started ticking on the first game of the NCAA Tournament, the season reset.
It’s not always about who’s the better team as a whole, but who’s the better team in that game.
After the first round of games, how are teams stacking up? We’ve thrown out the seeds and ranked the top 16 teams heading into the Round of 32.
Conference
ACC
Big 12
Big East
Big Ten
SEC
Region
Birmingham 2
Birmingham 3
Spokane 1
Spokane 4
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South Carolina displayed its typical first-round blowout, taking out Tennessee Tech with a 60-point win. The Golden Eagles hadn’t lost since the second week of January but that didn’t matter for the Gamecocks. South Carolina’s depth is what already separates it from other tournament teams, and the Gamecocks will head into the second round especially fresh. Dawn Staley’s used her entire bench and kept each starter at under 20 minutes. Freshman forward Joyce Edwards scored an efficient 22 points for an excellent NCAA Tournament debut, which should provide confidence as the tournament grows tougher.
Senior guard Azzi Fudd shined brightly with a 27-point outing as the Huskies handily beat Arkansas State in the first round. Freshman sensation Sarah Strong tallied 20 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. The fact that neither of these players were part of UConn’s Final Four run last season — Fudd missed most of the year with an injury — bodes well for the fully loaded Huskies. They held the Red Wolves to just 17.1 percent shooting from the floor and recorded 25 combined blocks and steals as a team. The Huskies have now advanced to the second round in 32 straight seasons, so this type of performance is nothing new, but they appear to be on a mission this season.
The Bruins controlled the game against Southern from start to finish and fully locked down in the second half defensively, allowing just 20 points in the final two frames. UCLA’s size as a whole was smothering, but 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts set the tone with her rim protection. Eight Bruins scored nine or more points, highlighting the depth that makes them such a difficult tournament matchup. No. 8 seed Richmond — UCLA’s second-round opponent — plays a style that’s difficult to defend, punctuated by great spacing, quick decisions and shooting at every position. But Richmond’s tallest starter is 6-2, and its tallest rotation player is 6-3. UCLA has five players 6-2 or taller in its regular rotation, so its ability to flatten things defensively with length provides an equation too tough for the Spiders to solve.
The Trojans’ offense was mucked up by the strong defense that earned UNC Greensboro a trip to the Big Dance. However, USC’s own defense, the best in the Big Ten, held the Spartans to just 13 percent shooting from the floor and 25 points overall, allowing only 11 points in the opening 20 minutes. That fortitude and ability to rely on its defense is what can separate USC as it attempts to go on a Final Four run. JuJu Watkins nearly outscored the Spartans herself, finishing with a game-high 22 points while chipping in eight rebounds and three steals. USC’s offense wasn’t quite where coach Lindsay Gottlieb wanted it to be, but the Trojans’ resilient defense is a reason to trust UCS’s chances.
After a testing start from William & Mary, the Longhorns got back to the dominant basketball that made them a No. 1 seed. The most intriguing part of the game is what it says about the style Texas is playing to start the tournament. Though coach Vic Schaefer isn’t changing schemes or ideology, the tweaks to rotations and lineups were noteworthy. In the SEC tournament against South Carolina in particular but also against LSU, the Longhorns looked a step behind more than usual. With Jordan Lee in the starting lineup and better ball movement as a whole, their offense popped in the halfcourt against William & Mary. This refreshment should be beneficial against an athletic and physical Illinois squad in the second round.
Duke has won seven straight games, making it one of the hottest teams in the tournament. In that streak, no team has cracked the 70-point threshold on the Blue Devils — including in their wins against Notre Dame and NC State en route to their ACC tournament title. So it wasn’t surprising to see Lehigh fail to reach double digits in any quarter and muster only 25 total points in the first round against No. 2 seed Duke. Every Lehigh action was stifled, every handle kept in check, and every advantage snuffed out. Finishing with a game-high 15 points, Oluchi Okananwa continues to play with the verve she showed in the ACC tournament that earned her Most Outstanding Player. Okananwa’s contributions will be needed even more against Oregon. Okananwa guarded Deja Kelly a few times last season when Kelly was with North Carolina. Her ability to keep Kelly in check could determine whether Duke advances to the Sweet 16.
Notre Dame took care of business against No. 14 Stephen F. Austin. But Olivia Miles’ uncertain status makes the Irish’s second-round matchup against young and feisty Michigan a little more daunting than expected. Miles rolled her left ankle early in the fourth quarter of the first-round game. On Saturday, coach Niele Ivey said she expected Miles would “try and get on that floor” against the Wolverines. Miles combines with Hannah Hidalgo to make one of the fiercest backcourt tandems in the nation. Though she didn’t hit a field goal against SFA, her stat line is fearsome: 15.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.9 apg, 1.4 spg and 40 percent shooting on 3-pointers. The Irish have enough offensive power to win on their home court, but missing Miles — or having her below 100 percent — opens a door for Michigan.
After a competitive first quarter, TCU’s offense kicked into high gear to outscore Fairleigh Dickinson 59-34 in the final three frames in the first round. It took TCU some time for the two-player game of Sedona Prince and Hailey Van Lith to click, but Madison Conner led the charge, finishing with a game-high 23 points and four 3-pointers. The Horned Frogs will face a stiff test in round two against Louisville, which excels at taking away primary actions. TCU’s defense has been solid this season, but it will be key to see how well it stifles a very shifty, guard-oriented group. All eyes will be on Van Lith as she faces the program she transferred from in 2023 to go to LSU (before transferring to TCU before this season).
The Tigers’ win over San Diego State was a vintage LSU performance, dominating the paint, the glass and the transition game. Both Flau’jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow started and put together strong performances after injuries that limited their availability during the SEC tournament. Against red-hot Florida State team, having both stars at full strength will be imperative. How the Tigers and Seminoles match up will be fascinating, but the experience in these moments and the edge LSU brings with its size won’t be easy to contend with.
The Wolfpack drew a tough opponent in Round 1 against battle-tested No. 15 seed Vermont. The game was tight for about 90 percent of it before NC State’s defense took hold, and its guard trio turned up and found its range. Finding more efficient looks early in the second round will pay dividends for the Wolfpack. They just find ways to win games that grind down, but they’re capable of playing with more cohesion, and they’ll need that for another trip to the Final Four.
The Sooners received one of the more difficult draws in the opening round, facing the same FGCU team that nearly beat them in the first round last season. The 2025 rematch was shaping up to be similar as FGCU pulled to within six points near the end of the third quarter, but Oklahoma asserted itself behind a 25-point, 18-rebound performance from standout center Raegan Beers. With Oregon State last season, Beers made herself a tournament gem and she appears ready to do the same with Oklahoma after transferring in the offseason. Beers and frontcourt mate Skylar Vann (24 points in the first round) will be a handful for tournament opponents. Iowa’s tandem of Hannah Stuelke and Ava Heiden will provide an enticing battle in the post.
No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast
After a slow first half, much more in line with Oregon State’s style, UNC hit the gas in the second half, scoring 44 points. The Tar Heels kept the ball alive, turning it over only five times while forcing the Beavers into 17 turnovers. Lexi Donarski nailed five of her eight 3-pointers, making more triples individually than Oregon State as a team. North Carolina rolls into the second round with an intriguing clash of styles against West Virginia.
Ole Miss was in the conversation to be a tournament host for most of the season, and they showed why in the first round. The game was never in doubt for the Rebels, weathering Ball State’s first run and commanding a 20-point lead for most of the game. Starr Jacobs, Kennedy Todd-Williams and Madison Scott combined for 48 points. Ole Miss’ matchup against Baylor figures to be one of the premier games of the first weekend. With the Rebels’ defensive tenacity, easy buckets for opponents are hard to come by.
It took some time for Baylor to figure out Aaronette Vonleh’s fit this season, but the Bears have rolled since learning how to optimize the talented center. It paid off against Grand Canyon in the first round as she led the Bears with 25 points on 10-of-13 shooting. Baylor needs to clean up its turnovers (19 against Grand Canyon), but it played with the composure that got it to last season’s Sweet 16. Keep an eye on Baylor’s free-throw shooting, too, as the 20 of 31 showing wasn’t a deviation from usual efficiency. Baylor ranks 302nd nationally in free throw percentage (67.1 percent), per Basketball Reference.
The sixth-seeded Seminoles are the lowest-seeded team in my power rankings, but they earned their spot with a phenomenal outing against George Mason. In a back and forth game, Florida State blew the doors off in the fourth quarter and showed the spark that makes it a contender for a long stay in March Madness. The guard play, spearheaded by program star Ta’Niya Latson, seemingly can put up 50-point halves without blinking. The defense can apply pressure and keep the pace where coach Brooke Wyckoff’s team likes it: max speed. Florida State has the feel of a team primed for a special run.
Kansas State dominated with Ayoka Lee back in the lineup for the first time in over a month. Lee, a 6-foot-6 center, finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds in just 15 minutes of action. The Wildcats played like a host team for much of the first half of the season prior to Lee’s foot injury, and if they return to that form, they could shoot up these rankings and make a tournament run. Looks from deep were cleaner, help defense was consistently focused on the paint, and the Wildcats owned the glass. We’ll get an even better perspective of where Kansas State stands in the second round against No. 4 seed Kentucky.
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(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos of Hailey Van Lith, Lauren Betts and Ayoka Lee: Michael Hickey, Cooper Neill and Peter G. Aiken / Getty Images)
